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Forex News Timeline

Thursday, June 24, 2021

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday that there is tangible risk inflation could be even stronger than expected, as reported by Reut

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday that there is tangible risk inflation could be even stronger than expected, as reported by Reuters. "Policymakers will need to account for new inflation risks in coming months," Bullard added. "Full reopening in the US and globally could mean more tailwinds for the US Economy and faster price increases." Bullard further noted that the upside surprise could push inflation beyond what's needed for the Fed to account for weak inflation in the past. Market reaction The US Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction to these comments and continues to fluctuate around 91.80. 

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said on Thursday that there is an upside risk to his forecast for 3.4% inflation this year and 2.4% next year, as r

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said on Thursday that there is an upside risk to his forecast for 3.4% inflation this year and 2.4% next year, as reported by Reuters. Kaplan also noted that the demand is strong and added that he expects it to continue to be strong. Market reaction These remarks don't seem to be having a noticeable impact on the greenback's performance against its major rivals. As of writing, the US Dollar Index was posting small daily gains at 91.82.

United States 7-Year Note Auction rose from previous 0% to 1.264%

US President Joe Biden announced on Thursday that they have reached a deal on the infrastructure spending plan following a meeting with a bipartisan g

US President Joe Biden announced on Thursday that they have reached a deal on the infrastructure spending plan following a meeting with a bipartisan group of senators, as reported by Reuters. Additional takeaways "Neither side got all they wanted in infrastructure deal." "Made serious compromises on human infrastructure." "We'll see what happens in the reconciliation bill, the budget process." Commenting on this development, Republican US Senator Portman noted that the infrastructure deal has no new taxes. Market reaction The market mood remains upbeat following these comments and the S&P 500 Index was last seen rising 0.62% on the day at 4,267.

The US Federal Reserve is not taking a calendar-based approach to interest rates or the monetary policy, New York Federal Reserve President John Willi

The US Federal Reserve is not taking a calendar-based approach to interest rates or the monetary policy, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Thursday, as reported by Reuters. Additional takeaways "It would be concerning if higher inflation persisted." "I don't think the big increases in prices mean inflation will continue." "My view is inflation will come down to about 2% next year and the year after." "Prices are just adjusting back to normal and that won't continue year after year." "As demand stabilizes and supply comes back then price increases will slow." "Fed is watching inflation carefully." "Once the economic recovery is more complete, the Fed can take back low interest rates." "The time to change rates is not now, the economy is still far from maximum employment." "The Fed is using a range of metrics in assessing the economy, including high-frequency data." Market reaction The US Dollar Index clings to small recovery gains following these comments and was last seen rising 0.05% at 91.83.

As expected, the Bank of England (BoE) kept its monetary policy stance unchanged on Thursday. According to analysts from Rabobank the attention will q

As expected, the Bank of England (BoE) kept its monetary policy stance unchanged on Thursday. According to analysts from Rabobank the attention will quickly shift to the August meeting when the Monetary Policy Committee has a full set of fresh staff forecasts at its disposal and will have to make a new decision on the pace of gilt purchases. They don’t think the BoE will have to raise rates in 2021 or in 2022.  Key Quotes:  “This clearly wasn’t the hawkish tilt on which some market participants had placed their bets. The attention will quickly shift to the August meeting, when the MPC has a full set of fresh staff forecasts at its disposal and will have to make a new decision on the pace of gilt purchases.” “While it is clear that the economy experienced a sugar rush in the second quarter, probably leading to some stellar growth figures, we continue to find it difficult to see how consumer spending could exceed pre-pandemic levels in a sustainable way. The MPC members also “have a range of views” on whether the upside news on activity signalled stronger future demand growth, or simply a faster recovery to the pre-Covid level of GDP. We would argue the latter and expect moderation in growth before we’re back at trend. A moderation in inflation would then follow from early-2022 onwards. As such, we don’t think that the Bank of England will be in the position to raise interest rates this year or next.”
 

The USD/MXN bottomed on Thursday at 20.00, the lowest level in a week, and then rebounded modestly. The 20.00 area remains under pressure. It is a cri

Mexican central bank expected to keep rates unchanged, hawkish bias.USD/MXN with bearish momentum, unclear trend.The USD/MXN bottomed on Thursday at 20.00, the lowest level in a week, and then rebounded modestly. The 20.00 area remains under pressure. It is a critical support and near the 20 and 55-day simple moving average. A consolidation under 19.95 would point to further strength for the Mexican peso. The dollar is falling for the fourth consecutive day ahead of the decision of the Bank of Mexico. No change is expected but the statement could have an impact on the MXN. Despite the ongoing decline, technical indicators in USD/MXN, like the daily RSI are not yet at extreme levels, suggesting it could drop further. The 20.00 zone is a barrier that could trigger a rebound. On the upside, the resistance is seen at 20.25, a horizontal level and also the 100-day moving average. Above the bearish pressure would alleviate. USD/MXN daily chart  

United States 4-Week Bill Auction remains at 0.045%

Data released on Thursday showed that Durable Goods Orders rose 2.3% in May, below expectations. Analysts at Wells Fargo point out the increase was dr

Data released on Thursday showed that Durable Goods Orders rose 2.3% in May, below expectations. Analysts at Wells Fargo point out the increase was driven by a solid showing in the transportation sector as the outlook for the aircraft industry improves and the parts shortages affecting the motor vehicle industry at least do not appear to be worsening. They see the trend in core capital goods orders remaining impressive and indicating solid investment. Key Quotes:  “After April's durable goods orders disrupted a rare 11-month run of undisturbed gains, orders for long-lasting goods bounced back 2.3% in May. A few factors contributed to getting orders back on track. First, defense orders, which were a meaningful drag on total orders last month, turned around to increase 17.4%. Second, transportation orders bounced back 7.6% last month.” “The durable goods report is a fairly reliable gauge of where equipment spending figures in the GDP accounts is headed and also a decent proxy for capital spending more broadly. The key is to strip out defense spending and the lumpiness of aircraft orders.” “Core capital goods orders has already had a better rebound from the pandemic era than it did in the wake of either of the prior recessions (2001 & the fallout from the financial crisis in 2008-2009). In both of those periods it took years for the level of core orders to get back to its pre-recession peak. Not only have core capital goods orders fully retraced losses, the level today is 7.3% above its prior cycle peak.” “Core capital goods orders slipped 0.1% in May, although after accounting for a sturdy half a percentage point upward revision to April's gain, the current level is higher than last month's print even if the momentum is fading a bit.”
 

The GBP/USD is trading slightly above 1.3900, under pressure amid a rally of the US dollar and following a sharp slide of the pound on the back of the

Pound remains among the worst performers on Thursday after BoE.Cable resumes downside after being unable to recover 1.4000.The GBP/USD is trading slightly above 1.3900, under pressure amid a rally of the US dollar and following a sharp slide of the pound on the back of the Bank of England meeting. BoE and US dollar hit GBP/USD The pound tumbled after the BoE released its statement from the latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The central bank kept policy unchanged as expected but it was seen as a dovish meeting, triggering the slide of the pound. GBP/USD bottomed t 1.3888 and then bounced to the upside finding resistance at 1.3930. Recently it tested the lows. “This clearly wasn’t the hawkish tilt on which some market participants had placed their bets. The attention will quickly shift to the August meeting when the MPC has a full set of fresh staff forecasts at its disposal and will have to make a new decision on the pace of gilt purchases”, explained analysts at Rabobank. The US dollar gained momentum during the American session. Economic data from the US was mostly ignored by market participants and the currency trimmed losses across the board during the last hours, probably amid some optimism about a bipartisan deal in the US Congress for Biden’s infrastructure program. Cable resumes slide The 1.4000 zone capped the recovery of the GBP/USD after falling sharply last week. The pound failed to regain that area and started to pull back. On Thursday, the pair appears to be resuming the downside. The next strong support is seen at 1.3850/60, a break lower would add more pressure. On the upside, a recovery above 1.4000 would alleviate the negative bias, and should favor an extension to 1.4065 (20-day moving average). Technical levels  

United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity down to 30 in June from previous 32

The USD/CAD pair dropped to a daily low of 1.2280 in the early American session on Thursday but managed to reverse its direction. As of writing, the p

USD/CAD gains traction during the American trading hours.US Dollar Index continues to fluctuate below 92.00.Mixed macroeconomic data releases from US failed to trigger a significant market reaction.The USD/CAD pair dropped to a daily low of 1.2280 in the early American session on Thursday but managed to reverse its direction. As of writing, the pair was up 0.1% on the day at 1.2316. DXY holds below 92.00 after US data Earlier in the day, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that it left the annualized first quarter Real GDP growth unchanged at 6.4% in its final estimate. This reading matched the market consensus and was largely ignored by market participants. Other data from the US revealed that the weekly Initial Jobless Claims edged lower to 411K from 418K but came in weaker than the market expectation of 380K. Finally, the US Census Bureau's monthly publication revealed that Durable Goods Orders increased by 2.3% in May, compared to analysts' estimate of 2.7%. Following these data, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is posting small daily gains around 91.80, helping USD/CAD stay in the positive territory. Meanwhile, crude oil prices are trading in a relatively tight range near Wednesday's closing level, allowing the USD's market valuation to continue to impact USD/CAD's movements. Later in the session, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams' comments on the policy outlook will be looked upon for fresh impetus. On Friday, the PCE inflation report will be featured in the US economic docket. Technical levels to watch for  

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change rose from previous 16B to 55B in June 18

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday that FOMC policymakers need to aim for both growth and sustainability, as reported b

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday that FOMC policymakers need to aim for both growth and sustainability, as reported by Reuters. "Business leaders are reluctant to hire to full capacity because they don't know what steady state is," Bostic noted. "It's still a very open question if there will be less demand for workers. Market reaction These comments don't seem to be having a noticeable impact on market sentiment. As of writing, the S&P 500 Index was up 0.55% on a daily basis at 4,265.

Silver added to its intraday gains and climbed to fresh daily tops during the early North American session. The commodity was last seen trading around

Silver regained positive traction on Thursday and inched back closer to weekly tops.The set-up still favours bearish traders and supports prospects for additional losses.A sustained break below the $25.70 confluence support will reaffirm the negative bias.Silver added to its intraday gains and climbed to fresh daily tops during the early North American session. The commodity was last seen trading around the $26.10-15 region, with bulls now eyeing weekly tops set on Wednesday. From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD, so far, has managed to defend a confluence support comprising of the very important 200-day SMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the $23.78-$28.75 move up. This should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders and help determine the next leg of a directional move for the white metal. Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart – though have recovered from lower levels – are still holding deep in the bearish territory. Given last week's break below a symmetrical triangle, the technical set-up still seems tilted in favour of bearish traders and supports prospects for a further near-term depreciating move. That said, traders are likely to wait for a sustained weakness below the mentioned confluence support, around the $25.70 region, before placing fresh bearish bets. The next relevant support is pegged near the $25.55 region before the XAG/USD eventually drops to the key $25.00 psychological mark en-route the $24.80 horizontal level. Some follow-through selling would turn the XAG/USD vulnerable to extend the decline towards the $24.00 round-figure mark. The downward trajectory could eventually drag the white metal back towards YTD lows, around the $23.80-75 region touched in March. On the flip side, the ongoing positive move is more likely to confront stiff resistance near the 50% Fibo. level, around the $26.25-30 region. Any subsequent strength might be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the $26.55-60 supply zone. This is followed by the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the $26.85 region. A sustained move beyond the latter is needed to negate the near-term negative bias and shift the bias back in favour of bullish traders. XAG/USD daily chart Technical levels to watch  

The US economy is "by and large in a good shape" with extremely healthy consumption, housing and manufacturing, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Pres

The US economy is "by and large in a good shape" with extremely healthy consumption, housing and manufacturing, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker said on Thursday, as reported by Reuters. "Employment remains down significantly, with nearly 7.6 million fewer people working than before the pandemic," Harker further noted and added that the GDP has come roaring back after a record contraction during the first half of 2020. Market reaction These remarks were largely ignored by market participants and the US Dollar Index was last seen posting small daily losses at 91.72.

Major equity indexes in the US opened in the positive territory following mixed macroeconomic data releases from the US. As of writing, the S&P 500 is

Wall Street's main indexes opened higher on Thursday.Technology shares post strong gains after the opening bell.Energy stocks underperform as oil rally loses steam.Major equity indexes in the US opened in the positive territory following mixed macroeconomic data releases from the US. As of writing, the S&P 500 is trading at a new all-time high of 4,266, gaining 0.57% on a daily basis. In the meantime, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is rising 0.66% at 34,090 and the Nasdaq Composite is up 0.85% at 14,393. Earlier in the day, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 6.4% in the first quarter as expected. Furthermore, the US Department of Labor announced that the weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined modestly to 411,000 from 418,000. Finally, Durable Goods Orders rose by 2.3% in May and fell short of the market consensus of 2.7%. Among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, the Technology Index is up nearly 1% after the opening bell. On the other hand, the Energy Index is posting small losses pressured by a 0.8% decline seen in US crude oil prices.Nasdaq (NDX, NQ1, QQQ) remains bullish as FAANG leads the way.S&P 500 chart (daily)  

EUR/JPY gives away earlier gains to the 132.70 area, or daily highs, and returns to the 132.30 region in the second half of the week. EUR/JPY remains

EUR/JPY fades the earlier move to tops in the 132.55/60 band.The key German IFO survey came in above expectations in June.US final Q1 GDP came in at 6.4%, Claims rose by 411K.EUR/JPY gives away earlier gains to the 132.70 area, or daily highs, and returns to the 132.30 region in the second half of the week. EUR/JPY remains supported by 130.00 EUR/JPY posts gains for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday, managing to gain more than 2 cents since Monday’s drop and test of the key 130.00 neighbourhood. The soft note around the greenback coupled with the flat activity in US yields seems to have now support some buying interest in the Japanese safe haven, motivating the cross to recede from tops around 132.70 recorded during early trade. The risk complex maintains the bid bias and stays supported by positive results from the euro docket earlier in the session after the IFO survey showed the German Business Climate improved further in June. Data in the US docket saw the economy expanding 6.4% during the January-March period, Initial Claims rising 411K from a week earlier, the flash trade deficit widening to $88.11 billion in May and Durable Goods Orders expanding at a monthly 2.3% In May. EUR/JPY relevant levels So far, the cross is gaining 0.02% at 132.32 and a surpass of 132.69 (weekly high Jun.23) would aim for 132.86 (20-day SMA) and then 134.50 (monthly high Oct.2017). On the other hand, the next support emerges at 130.04 (monthly low Jun.21) followed by 129.58 (monthly low Apr. 23) and finally 128.29 (weekly low Mar.24).

Thomas Barkin, President of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank, said on Thursday that he expects near-term inflation pressures to ease toward the fourt

Thomas Barkin, President of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank, said on Thursday that he expects near-term inflation pressures to ease toward the fourth quarter of the year, as reported by Reuters.  The relative price stability is likely to outweigh a few months of price increases, Barkin further argued. Market reaction These comments don't seem to be having a noticeable impact on the USD's performance against its major rivals. As of writing, the US Dollar Index was virtually unchanged on a daily basis at 91.75. 

The AUD/USD pair edged higher during the early North American session and refreshed daily tops in the last hour, with bulls making a fresh attempt to

A combination of factors assisted AUD/USD to gain traction for the fourth consecutive session.The risk-on mood benefitted the perceived riskier aussie amid a softer tone surrounding the USD.Thursday’s disappointing US macro data did little to impress the USD bulls or provide any impetus.The AUD/USD pair edged higher during the early North American session and refreshed daily tops in the last hour, with bulls making a fresh attempt to reclaim the 0.7600 mark. The pair managed to gain some positive traction for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday and is now looking to build on this week's solid rebound from the 0.7475 region, or six-month lows. The underlying bullish sentiment in the financial markets benefitted the perceived riskier aussie. Apart from this, a softer tone surrounding the US dollar provided an additional boost to the AUD/USD pair. Mixed signals from Fed officials on the US inflation now seemed to act as a headwind for the greenback. In fact, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the price pressures should ease on their own. Separately, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that the high inflation would last longer than expected. This, in turn, kept the USD bulls on the defensive. The USD failed to gain any respite from Thursday's softer US macro releases. The final GDP report confirmed that the US economy expanded by a 6.4% annualized pace during the first quarter of 2021, matching the preliminary estimates. This was largely offset by the disappointing releases of Durable Goods Orders and Initial Weekly Jobless Claims and did little to provide any impetus to the USD. Market participants now look forward to a scheduled speech by New York Fed President John Williams. This, along with the US bond yields and the broader market risk sentiment, might provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair. It, however, remains to be seen if bulls can capitalize on the positive move or once again face rejection near the 0.7600 mark, which should now act as a key pivotal point. Technical levels to watch  

The NZD/USD pair extended its rebound into the fourth straight day on Thursday and touched its highest level in a week at 0.7074. As of writing, the p

NZD/USD is rising for the fourth straight day on Thursday.US economy grew by 6.4% in the first quarter as expected.US Dollar Index stays in the negative territory after US data releases.The NZD/USD pair extended its rebound into the fourth straight day on Thursday and touched its highest level in a week at 0.7074. As of writing, the pair was up 0.36% on a daily basis at 0.7068. Investors ignore US data ahead of Fedspeak Following the mixed data releases, the greenback continues to have a difficult time attracting investors and the US Dollar Index (DXY) was last seen losing 0.12% on the day at 91.68. Additionally, Wall Street's main indexes remain on track to open in the positive territory, suggesting that the USD weakness is likely to persist during the American session with risk flows dominating the markets.  The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported earlier in the session that the Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 6.4% in the first quarter. This print matched the previous estimate as expected. Other data from the US showed that the weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined modestly to 411,000 from 418,000 and Durable Goods Orders rose by 2.3% in May, missing analysts' estimate for an increase of 2.7%. Later in the day, several FOMC policymakers will be delivering speeches and investors will look for fresh clues regarding the policy outlook. On Wednesday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic's hawkish comments helped the stage a rebound in the late American session. On Friday, Trade Balance data from New Zealand will be looked upon for fresh impetus. Technical levels to watch for  

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ down to $595.1B from previous $604.8B

Belgium Leading Indicator up to 9.8 in June from previous 6.5

Durable Goods Orders in the United States rose by 2.3%, or $5.7 billion, to $253.5 billion in May, the data published by the US Census Bureau revealed

Durable Goods Orders in US rose less than expected in May.US Dollar Index extends sideways grind below 92.00 after the data.Durable Goods Orders in the United States rose by 2.3%, or $5.7 billion, to $253.5 billion in May, the data published by the US Census Bureau revealed on Thursday. This reading came in weaker than the market expectation for an increase of 2.7% and followed a 0.8% decline recorded in April. "Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.7%," the publication further read. "Transportation equipment, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $5.2 billion or 7.6%, to $74.2 billion." Market reaction The US Dollar Index paid little to no attention to this report and was last seen posting small daily losses at 91.73.

The USD/JPY pair maintained its offered tone through the early North American session and was last seen hovering near daily lows, around the 110.80-75

USD/JPY eroded a major part of the overnight gains to the highest level since March 2020.Mixed signals on the US inflation kept the USD bulls on the defensive and exerted pressure.An uptick in the US bond yields might help limit the downside, despite softer US macro data.The USD/JPY pair maintained its offered tone through the early North American session and was last seen hovering near daily lows, around the 110.80-75 region. Having struggled to find acceptance above the 111.00 mark, the USD/JPY pair witnessed some selling on Thursday and for now, seems to have stalled its recent move up to the highest level since March 2020. The pullback was exclusively sponsored by a modest US dollar weakness, which remained on the defensive after mostly softer US macro releases. The final GDP report confirmed that the US economy expanded by a 6.4% annualized pace during the first quarter of 2021, matching the preliminary estimates. Separately, Durable Goods Orders and Initial Weekly Jobless Claims fell short of market expectations. This, along with mixed signals on the US inflation acted as a headwind for the USD. That said, the underlying bullish sentiment in the financial markets – as depicted by indications of a strong opening in the US equity markets – undermined the safe-haven Japanese yen. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that held traders from placing any aggressive bearish bets around the USD/JPY pair and might help limit the downside. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through selling before confirming that the recent positive move witnessed over the past two months or so has run out of steam. This will set the stage for some meaningful corrective slide and drag the USD/JPY pair back towards challenging the key 110.00 psychological mark. Technical levels to watch  

Economist at UOB Group Barnabas Gan assesses the latest release of inflation figures in Singapore. Key Quotes “Similar to inflation trends seen across

Economist at UOB Group Barnabas Gan assesses the latest release of inflation figures in Singapore. Key Quotes “Similar to inflation trends seen across Asia, Singapore’s consumer prices accelerated further to +2.4% y/y (+0.8% m/m nsa) in May 2021. This is the fifth straight month where the inflation rate strengthened from the previous reading. The increase in consumer prices was slightly higher compared to market estimate of +2.2% y/y (+0.4% m/m nsa). Moreover, headline inflation grew at its fastest pace since November 2013 (+2.6% y/y, +0.7% m/m nsa).” “Despite the increase in headline inflation to its multi-year high, core inflation as a measure of consumer prices excluding private road transport and accommodation was benign at +0.8% y/y.” “As discussed above, the rise in consumer prices in May 2021 is partially due to low base effects in May 2020, where overall prices plummeted to their weakest pace since May 2016 at -0.8% y/y. Moreover, Singapore saw a persistent deflation environment in the period between April and November 2020, on the back of a relatively weaker economic environment and low oil prices then.” “Official estimates kept headline inflation at a range between 0.5% and 1.5%, while core inflation is forecast at between 0.0% and 1.0% for 2021. On the back of higherthan-expected inflation against market estimates since February 2021, we upgrade our headline inflation outlook to average +1.4% in 2021, up from our previous call of +1.0%. We keep our core inflation outlook at an average of +1.0% for this year.”

There were 411,000 initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US during the week ending June 19, the data published by the US Department of Labor

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims in the US declined by 7,000.US Dollar Index stays in the negative territory near 91.70.There were 411,000 initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US during the week ending June 19, the data published by the US Department of Labor (DOL) revealed on Thursday. This reading came in weaker than the market expectation of 380,000 and followed the previous print of 418,000 (revised from 412,000). Market reaction This report doesn't seem to be having a significant impact on the USD's performance against its major rivals. As of writing, the US Dollar Index was down 0.08% on the day at 91.71. Additional takeaways "The 4-week moving average was 397,750, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average." "The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4% for the week ending June 12, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate." "The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 12 was 3,390,000, a decrease of 144,000 from the previous week's revised level."

United States Gross Domestic Product Annualized meets forecasts (6.4%) in 1Q

The United States' Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 6.4% in the first quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis repor

US economy expanded by 6.4% in the first quarter of 2021.US Dollar Index stays relatively quiet around 91.70 after the data.The United States' Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 6.4% in the first quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday. This reading matched the previous estimate and the market consensus. Market reaction The initial market reaction was largely muted and the US Dollar Index was last seen posting small daily losses at 91.74. Additional takeaways "Upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment and exports were offset by an upward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP." "The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment and exports. Imports increased."

United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) remains at 3.7% in 1Q

United States Goods Trade Balance up to $88.1B in May from previous $-86.7B

United States Gross Domestic Product Price Index in line with expectations (4.3%) in 1Q

United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) meets forecasts (2.5%) in 1Q

United States Wholesale Inventories up to 1.1% in May from previous 0.8%

United States Durable Goods Orders registered at 2.3%, below expectations (2.7%) in May

United States Continuing Jobless Claims registered at 3.39M, below expectations (3.46M) in June 11

United States Initial Jobless Claims registered at 411K above expectations (380K) in June 18

United States Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation below forecasts (0.7%) in May: Actual (0.3%)

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average rose from previous 395K to 397.75K in June 18

United States Durable Goods Orders ex Defense increased to 1.7% in May from previous 0%

The Nasdaq has taken over a leadership role in the equity indices space as markets overall remain strongly bullish amidst the highly accommodative Fed

Nasdaq breaks more records on Wednesday as the index outperforms all others.Thursday sees a positive start with futures up 0.6% in early trading.Market breadth remains low as big tech leaders lead the way.The Nasdaq has taken over a leadership role in the equity indices space as markets overall remain strongly bullish amidst the highly accommodative Fed policy. The buy the dip strategy has proven once again to be the only show in town and with monetary policy this accommodative why not?  Market breadth remains a cause for concern with the number of stocks above their 200-day moving average well below peak and stocks making new highs also well below peak, though both have bounced this week. What we are seeing however is a strong surge led by the strong stocks. Big tech and FAANG names continue to lead the way, GOOGL and FB made new record highs this week and Apple finally showed some strength and broke out of its slumber, see here. Tesla staged a powerful break of the $635 level we identified on Wednesday, see here. Nasdaq (QQQ NQ) stock forecast Using the futures contract which mirrors the Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) the Q's (QQQ) shows the continued strong uptrend holding nicely. Fridays buy the dip in the Dow and S&P 500 was not exactly a dip here as the Nasdaq has taken over the leadership role. The 9-day moving average is the perfect foil, guiding the trend higher and as long as we remain above this the risk reward remains skewed to the upside. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) are all trending higher thereby confirming the price action. Support remains from the previous record high period in April/May at 14,053 as this corresponds with the lower end of the trend channel. Below that 13,800-13,700 is a high volume zone and 13,462 the last buy the dip support zone.  The Relative Strength Index (RSI) does look to be heading for overbought regions so keep a close eye on this one. The hourly chart below gives us some more detail and shows that a break of 14,250 sees a bit of a volume gap beneath so the price could accelerate to 14,130 if this breaks. 120 points not much, but good enough for some intra-day scalping if it works out.       Like this article? Help us with some feedback by answering this survey:Rate this content (function() { var qs,js,q,s,d=document, gi=d.getElementById, ce=d.createElement, gt=d.getElementsByTagName, id="typef_orm_share", b="https://embed.typeform.com/"; if(!gi.call(d,id)){ js=ce.call(d,"script"); js.id=id; js.src=b+"embed.js"; q=gt.call(d,"script")[0]; q.parentNode.insertBefore(js,q) } })()

Thursday's US economic docket highlights the releases of the final Q1 GDP print, Durable Goods Orders and Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, scheduled at

US economic data overview Thursday's US economic docket highlights the releases of the final Q1 GDP print, Durable Goods Orders and Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, scheduled at 12:30 GMT. The third estimate is expected to confirm that the US economic growth during the January-March period stood at 6.4% annualized pace, matching the preliminary release. Separately, the US Durable Goods Orders are expected to have increased by 2.7% in May as against the 1.3% decline recorded in the previous month. Orders ex-transportation and Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex-aircraft are projected to rise by 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively, down from April's 1.0% and 2.2%, respectively. Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims are forecast to drop sharply to 380,000 during the week ended June 18 as against the previous week's reading of 412,000. Continuing Claims are expected to fall further to 3.46 million from 3.518 million previously. How could it affect EUR/USD? Ahead of the key releases, a generally softer tone surrounding the US dollar extended some support to the EUR/USD pair. That said, a modest pickup in the US Treasury bond yields acted as a tailwind for the greenback and kept a lid on any meaningful upside for the major. Against the backdrop of a sudden hawkish turn by the Fed, surprisingly stronger US macro data might be enough to provide a goodish lift to the greenback. Conversely, a more dovish ECB would offset any disappointment from the US macro data, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the major remains to the downside. Meanwhile, Pablo Piovano, FXStreet's own editor, provided important technical levels to trade the pair: “EUR/USD expects to meet a minor resistance at a Fibo retracement at 1.1976 ahead of the more significant barrier at the critical 200-day SMA, today at 1.1993. Further north comes in the psychological yardstick at 1.20 the figure. Above the 200-day SMA, the selling pressure is expected to alleviate somewhat.” Key Notes:    •  US Durable Goods Orders May Preview: Is the consumer really absent?    •  EUR/USD Forecast: Downside pressure mitigated above the 200-day SMA    •  EUR/USD keeps focused on 1.1970 – UOB About the US economic data The Gross Domestic Product Annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time. GDP Annualized is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative. The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD. The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.

The British pound weakened across the board after the Bank of England announced its policy decision and dragged the GBP/JPY cross to fresh session low

GBP/JPY witnessed some heavy selling after the BoE announced its policy decision.The lack of any hawkish tilt disappointed investors and weighed on the British pound.The JPY benefitted from a modest USD weakness and contributed to the selling bias.The British pound weakened across the board after the Bank of England announced its policy decision and dragged the GBP/JPY cross to fresh session lows, around the 154.00 mark in the last hour. As was widely expected, the BoE maintained the status-quo and decided to leave its monetary policy settings unchanged at the end of the June policy meeting. However, the lack of any hawkish tilt seemed to have disappointing market participants. This, along with concerns about the EU-UK stand-off on the Northern Ireland protocol and a jump in the Delta Plus covid cases in the UK, weighed on the sterling. On the other hand, the Japanese yen benefitted from a softer tone surrounding the US dollar. This, in turn, was seen as another factor that exerted some downward pressure on the GBP/JPY cross, which, for now, seems to have snapped the three days of the winning streak and stalled this week's strong bounce from the 151.30 area, or the lowest level since May 7 touched on the first day of the week. Meanwhile, the underlying bullish sentiment in the financial markets might keep a lid on any strong gains for the safe-haven JPY. Apart from this, the optimistic outlook for the UK economic recovery from the pandemic, bolstered by Wednesday's flash PMI prints for June, might hold investors from placing aggressive bets and help limit further losses for the GBP/JPY cross, at least for now. Hence, any subsequent decline below the 154.00 level might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the 153.55-50 region. The mentioned support should now act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively will shift the bias back in favour of bearish traders. The GBP/JPY cross might then prolong its recent corrective pullback from the 156.00 mark, or multi-year tops. Technical levels to watch  

The EUR/GBP pair gained nearly 50 pips with the initial market reaction to the Bank of England's (BoE) policy statement and touched a fresh daily high

EUR/GBP rose sharply during the European trading hours on Thursday.Dovish tone in BoE's policy statement is weighing on GBP.The EUR/GBP pair gained nearly 50 pips with the initial market reaction to the Bank of England's (BoE) policy statement and touched a fresh daily high of 0.8590 before retreating modestly. As of writing, the pair was up 0.5% on the day at 0.8580. BoE refrains from delivering hawkish message Although the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.10% as expected and maintained the Asset Purchase Facility at £895 billion, the dovish tone in the publication hurt the GBP. "Most MPC members felt policy should both lean strongly against downside risks to the outlook and ensure that the recovery was not undermined by a premature tightening in monetary conditions," the BoE noted. Reflecting the broad-based GBP weakness, the GBP/USD pair fell sharply and is currently trading at 1.3920, where it's down 0.27% on a daily basis.Breaking: Bank of England leaves policy settings unchanged as expected.Regarding the inflation outlook, the BoE noted that the MPC felt that the weight should be put on inflation developments over a "somewhat longer period of time." Technical levels to watch for    

The GBP/USD pair witnessed some aggressive selling in the last hour and dropped to the 1.3900 neighbourhood, or fresh session lows after the Bank of E

GBP/USD came under some heavy selling pressure after the BoE announced its policy decision.The lack of any hawkish turn disappointed investors and exerted pressure on the British pound.A subdued USD price action might help limit any further losses ahead of the key US macro data.The GBP/USD pair witnessed some aggressive selling in the last hour and dropped to the 1.3900 neighbourhood, or fresh session lows after the Bank of England announced its policy decision. As was widely expected, the BoE left its monetary policy settings unchanged at the end of June meeting on Thursday. In the accompanying statement, the central bank termed the rise in inflation as transitory and said that it did not want to undermine the recovery by premature tightening. However, the lack of any hawkish tilt seemed to have disappointing market participants. This, along with concerns about the EU-UK stand-off on the Northern Ireland protocol and a jump in the Delta Plus covid cases in the UK, exerted some heavy downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. The downside remained cushioned, at least for the time being, on the back of a subdued US dollar price action, which has struggled to gain any traction amid mixed signals on the US inflation. That said, a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields acted as a tailwind for the greenback. With the key event risk out of the way, market participants now look forward to a slew of important US macro data for a fresh trading impetus. The US economic docket highlights the release of the final Q1 GDP print, Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims and Goods Trade Balance figures. This, along with the US bond yields and a scheduled speech by New York Fed President John Williams, will influence the USD price dynamics and produce some trading opportunities around the GBP/USD pair. Technical levels to watch  

The weekly upside in EUR/USD run out of steam in the 1.1970 area on Wednesday. If the recovery gathers extra steam, then there is room for spot to cha

EUR/USD reverses the previous pullback on Thursday.Further up is located the 200-day SMA and the 1.2000 mark.The weekly upside in EUR/USD run out of steam in the 1.1970 area on Wednesday. If the recovery gathers extra steam, then there is room for spot to challenge the 200-day SMA, today at 1.1993 ahead of the psychological 1.2000 hurdle. There is, however, a minor hurdle at a Fibo level at 1.1976 (which has been tested on Wednesday). The outlook for EUR/USD should shift to negative on a sustainable breakdown of the key 200-day SMA. Next weeks are expected to be crucial regarding this issue.  EUR/USD daily chart  

United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Hike meets expectations (0)

Mexico Jobless Rate registered at 4%, below expectations (4.5%) in May

United Kingdom BoE Asset Purchase Facility in line with expectations (£895B)

United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (0.1%)

Mexico Jobless Rate s.a declined to 4.1% in May from previous 4.7%

United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Cut meets forecasts (0)

The Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.10% following the June policy

The Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.10% following the June policy meeting and kept the Asset Purchase Facility steady at £895 billion as widely expected.Follow our live coverage of the BoE policy announcements and the market reaction.Market reaction The British pound came under strong bearish pressure with the initial reaction and the GBP/USD lost more than 50 pips in a matter of minutes. As of writing, the pair was down 0.23% on a daily basis at 1.3927.

Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation came in at 0.35%, above forecasts (0.21%) in June

United Kingdom BoE MPC Vote Unchanged meets expectations (9)

Mexico 1st half-month Inflation registered at 0.34% above expectations (0.2%) in June

DXY keeps the choppy trade well and sound so far this week, with initial contention in the mid-91.00s, where sits the 200-day SMA. If the selling impu

DXY briefly visited the 200-day SMA on Wednesday.There is still room for a deeper move to 91.50 and below.DXY keeps the choppy trade well and sound so far this week, with initial contention in the mid-91.00s, where sits the 200-day SMA. If the selling impulse picks up further pace, then another visit to the critical 200-day SMA, today at 91.48, should not be ruled out. In the meantime, and looking at the broader scenario, a sustainable breakout of the 200-day SMA should shift the outlook for the buck to positive. DXY daily chart  

EUR/JPY moves further north of the 132.00 mark on Thursday, advancing for the fourth session in a row. The recovery looks healthy and now flirts with

EUR/JPY’s weekly recovery falters in the 132.50/60 band.Next on the upside comes in 133.00 ahead of YTD highs.EUR/JPY moves further north of the 132.00 mark on Thursday, advancing for the fourth session in a row. The recovery looks healthy and now flirts with the 6-month resistance line near 132.60. Above this area, the cross is forecast to accelerate gains to, initially, the 133.00 yardstick ahead of the 2021 highs at 134.12 (recorded on June 1). In the broader picture, while above the 200-day SMA at 127.71 the broader outlook for the cross should remain constructive. EUR/JPY daily chart  

The AUD/USD pair closed the first three days of the week in the positive territory but seems to be having a difficult time extending its rebound on Th

AUD/USD continues to move sideways below 0.7600 on Thursday.US Dollar Index struggles to gain traction following Wednesday's modest rebound.Focus shifts to key macroeconomic data releases from the US.The AUD/USD pair closed the first three days of the week in the positive territory but seems to be having a difficult time extending its rebound on Thursday. As of writing, the pair was posting small daily gains at 0.7580.  Eyes on US data, Fedspeak In the absence of high-tier macroeconomic data releases from Australia, the USD's market valuation remains the primary driver of AUD/USD's action. After edging lower in the first half of the day on Wednesday, the US Dollar Index managed to gain traction in the American session and snapped a two-day losing streak, keeping AUD/USD's upside limited. Later in the day, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its final reading of the annualized first-quarter real GDP growth, which is expected to match the previous estimate of 6.4%. Other data releases from the US will include the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and May Durable Goods Orders.  Additionally, NY Fed President John Williams, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard are scheduled to deliver speeches during the American trading hours. Ahead of these key events, the US Dollar Index is modestly lower on the day at 91.68. Meanwhile, S&P Futures are up 0.5% on the day, suggesting that risk flows could dominate the markets in the second half of the day and cause the USD to remain on the back foot. Technical levels to watch for  

Economist at UOB Group Barnabas Gan comments on the latest BoT event. Key Quotes “The Bank of Thailand (BOT) kept its one-day repurchase rate unchange

Economist at UOB Group Barnabas Gan comments on the latest BoT event. Key Quotes “The Bank of Thailand (BOT) kept its one-day repurchase rate unchanged at 0.50% as widely expected for the ninth consecutive meeting on 23 June 2021. The last time it made a move was in May 2020, when the benchmark rate was cut by 25 bps. The decision to keep its policy rate unchanged was voted unanimously by all committee members.” “The latest monetary policy statement kept its relatively bearish outlook, citing that ‘the Thai economic recovery would be slower and more uneven than the previous forecast due to the third wave of the COVID-19 outbreak’.” “In view of the decline in tourism-led demand given the COVID-19 pandemic, BOT downgraded its 2021 GDP growth outlook to 1.8%, from its previous outlook of 3.0%.” “The reopening of Thailand’s borders may inject marginal upside risks to our full-year GDP outlook of 1.5% in 2021.” “Risks to Thailand’s economic outlook remain centred on COVID-19 developments.” “We continue to observe that policy space remains very limited, while fiscal policies will likely do the heavy lifting in supporting economic growth. In all, we keep our call for BOT to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.50% for the whole of 2021.

The single currency regains the smile and pushes EUR/USD back to the vicinity of the 1.1950 area in the second half of the week. EUR/USD up on data, l

EUR/USD reverses Wednesday’s pullback and targets 11950.German IFO survey surprised to the upside in June.Final Q1 GDP, weekly Claims next of relevance in the US docket.The single currency regains the smile and pushes EUR/USD back to the vicinity of the 1.1950 area in the second half of the week. EUR/USD up on data, looks to US calendar EUR/USD regains the positive mood following Wednesday’s pullback despite testing fresh weekly tops around 1.1970. The better tone in the risk complex coupled with the march higher in German yields and the softer note surrounding the buck all collaborates with the current buying interest in spot. In addition, the German Business Climate improved to 101.8 for the current month, as per the latest report from the IFO survey, and also lends legs to the European currency. Furthermore, IFO economists noted the economy is recovering at a fast pace, while they see the GDP expanding 1.3% in Q2. Other comments from IFO officials noted that big bottlenecks in industry still persist and that input costs have been on the rise. Later in the US data space, the focus of attention will be on the final Q1 GDP figures followed by Durable Goods Orders, advanced Goods Trade Balance results and Initial Claims. In addition, NY Fed J.Williams (permanent voter, centrist) is also due to speak. What to look for around EUR EUR/USD’s recovery lost momentum in the 1.1970/80 band for the time being. Price action around the pair is expected to exclusively follow the dollar dynamics, at least in the very near term and particularly after the latest FOMC event. In the meantime, support for the European currency comes in the form of auspicious results from fundamentals in the bloc coupled with higher morale, prospects of a strong rebound in the economic activity and the investors’ appetite for riskier assets.Key events in the euro area this week: German GfK Consumer Confidence, European Council meeting (Friday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Asymmetric economic recovery in the region. Sustainability of the pick-up in inflation figures. Progress of the vaccine rollout. Probable political effervescence around the EU Recovery Fund. German elections. Investors’ shift to European equities. EUR/USD levels to watch So far, spot is gaining 0.14% at 1.1942 and faces the next resistance at 1.1993 (200-day SMA) followed by 1.2030 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.2064 (38.2% Fibo retracement of the November-January rally). On the other hand, a break below 1.1847 (monthly low Jun.18) would target 1.1835 (low Mar.9) and route to 1.1704 (2021 low Mar.31).

Gold price is clawing back earlier losses, as the US dollar remains on the defensive amid conflicting signals on inflation and Fed’s next monetary pol

Gold catches a fresh bid but remains confined in a familiar range. US dollar remains broadly subdued amid a return of risk appetite.Firmer Treasury yields to limit the upside in gold price.  Gold Weekly Forecast: XAU/USD poised to extend slide after breaking key supportsGold price is clawing back earlier losses, as the US dollar remains on the defensive amid conflicting signals on inflation and Fed’s next monetary policy moves, especially after the policymakers from the world’s most powerful central bank delivered mixed messages. Further, a return of risk appetite in European trading has dulled the dollar’s safe-haven appeal, underpinning gold’s recovery. Gold price now awaits a raft of relevant US economic data, which will shed fresh light on the economy and likely Fed’s action. Therefore, investors remain in a wait-and-see mode before placing any aggressive bets on gold price. However, Friday’s PCE inflation release will remain the key event risk for gold. Read: US May PCE inflation preview: Data likely to reaffirm FOMC's hawkish tiltGold Price: Key levels to watch The Technical Confluences Detector shows that gold price has staged a decent bounce from $1773 support once again, which is the convergence of the previous day’s low, previous low four-hour and Bollinger Band four-hour Lower. Gold bulls now look to recapture strong resistance at $1783, where the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day and Bollinger Band one-hour Upper The next supply zone awaits at the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day of $1787, above which the confluence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week and one-day at $1790 will get tested. The level to beat for gold buyers is the SMA100 one-day at $1794. Alternatively, if the $1773 support cracks then the downside will resume towards the initial target of $1771, which is the pivot point one-day R1.   Strong support will emerge at the previous month’s low of $1766, below which the sellers will target the previous week’s low at $1761, where the pivot point one-day S2 meets. Here is how it looks on the tool          About Technical Confluences Detector The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

The USD/CAD pair lacked any firm directional bias and seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the first half of the European session. The pa

USD/CAD struggled to capitalize on the previous day’s goodish bounce from weekly lows.The recent bullish run-up in oil prices continued undermining the loonie and capped gains.The USD found some support from an uptick in the US bond yields and helped limit losses.The USD/CAD pair lacked any firm directional bias and seesawed between tepid gains/minor losses through the first half of the European session. The pair was last seen hovering around the 1.2300 round-figure mark, nearly unchanged for the day. A combination of diverging factors failed to assist the USD/CAD pair to capitalize on the previous day's goodish rebound from mid-1.2000s, or weekly lows and led to a subdued/range-bound price action on Thursday. The recent bullish run in crude oil prices underpinned the commodity-linked loonie and capped the upside for the major. On the other hand, the US dollar struggled to gain any meaningful traction and remained on the defensive amid mixed signals on US inflation. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that inflation is rising due to pent-up demand and supply bottlenecks and that the price pressures should ease on their own. Separately, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that the high inflation in the US would last longer than expected, though agreed that the price increase will prove temporary. That said, a modest pickup in the US Treasury bond yields acted as a tailwind for the USD and extended some support to the USD/CAD pair. Market participants now look forward to a slew of important US macro data for some impetus later during the early North American session. The US economic docket highlights the release of the final Q1 GDP print, Durable Goods Orders, the usual Initial Weekly Jobless Claims and Goods Trade Balance figures for May. This, along with the US bond yields and a scheduled speech by New York Fed President John Williams, will influence the USD. Apart from this, oil price dynamics might further contribute to produce some short-term trading opportunities around the USD/CAD pair. Technical levels to watch  

The upside momentum in USD/CNH is expected to meet a tough hurdle at the 6.5000 level, in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour v

The upside momentum in USD/CNH is expected to meet a tough hurdle at the 6.5000 level, in opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that USD ‘is unlikely to strengthen much further’ and we expected USD to ‘trade between 6.4680 and 6.4900’. However, USD rose to 6.4946 before pulling back to close largely unchanged at 6.4780 (-0.05%). Despite rising to 6.4946, upward momentum has not improved by much and the chance for a sustained advance in USD today is not high. For today, there is scope for USD to test 6.4950 before the risk of a deeper pullback would increase. The next resistance at 6.5000 is unlikely to come into the picture. On the downside, a break of 6.4700 (minor support is at 6.4740) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We have expected a stronger USD since early last week. Yesterday (23 Jun, spot at 6.4770), we highlighted that USD ‘could move above 6.4930 but may not be able to maintain a foothold above this major level’. USD subsequently rose to 6.4946 before pulling back. Upward momentum has improved, albeit not by all that much. Further USD strength appears likely but 6.5000 is another major level and is expected to offer solid resistance. On the downside, a breach of 6.4550 (‘strong support’ level was 6.4500 yesterday) would indicate that the current USD strength has run its course.”

In its latest review report on China, Moody’s Investors Service noted that “China's economic rebound will buoy demand for goods and services, lifting

In its latest review report on China, Moody’s Investors Service noted that “China's economic rebound will buoy demand for goods and services, lifting companies' revenue over the next 12-18 months.” Key takeaways “Rising demand for goods and services in China, driven by GDP growth, will boost the earnings of most rated companies this year and next.” “For sectors such as auto and auto services, food and beverages, and technology hardware, EBITDA growth will outpace debt expansion, improving Chinese companies' leverage.”        “On the other hand, high spending needs will stall deleveraging for construction and engineering companies despite buoyant revenue and EBITDA due to a solid order backlog.” “Greater competition as a result of antitrust regulations will reduce the EBITDA margin of internet and technology companies.” Related readsChina lodges complaint with WTO over Australia's trade measures against some Chinese products – ReutersUSD/CNH extends pullback from two-month top amid sluggish USD, cautious optimism

South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (0.3%) in May: Actual (0.4%)

South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 7.4%, above forecasts (7.3%) in May

Following the release of the final German IFO Business Survey, the institute’s Economist Klaus Wohlrabe said that the “economy is picking up speed.” A

Following the release of the final German IFO Business Survey, the institute’s Economist Klaus Wohlrabe said that the “economy is picking up speed.” Additional quotes No revisions to May indices. Conditions in retail have improved by more than any time since German reunification in 1990. Situation in hospitality is still bad but optimism is growing. Exports expectations have risen. Bottlenecks in industry are still big.

UOB Group’s FX Strategists noted USD/JPY is now seen visiting the 111.35 level in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hoour view: “Our view for USD yesterda

UOB Group’s FX Strategists noted USD/JPY is now seen visiting the 111.35 level in the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hoour view: “Our view for USD yesterday was that it ‘could test 111.00 but may not be able to maintain a foothold above this level’. Our view was not wrong as USD rose to 111.10, dropped back down quickly to 110.65 during London hours before recovering to close at 110.94 in NY. Upward momentum has improved, albeit not by all that much and the bias for today is on the upside. However, any advance is unlikely to break the major resistance at 111.35. Support is at 110.80 followed by 110.60.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Yesterday (23 Jun, spot at 110.65), we noted that ‘upward momentum is beginning to improve but USD has to close above 111.00 before a sustained advance can be expected’. USD subsequently rose to 111.10 before closing at 110.94. While USD did not close above 111.00, upward momentum has improved enough to indicate that USD is likely to head higher to 111.35. At this stage, the prospect for the expected advance to extend to 111.70 is not high. Overall, the current positive outlook is deemed intact as long as USD does not move below 110.40 (‘strong support’ level was at 110.05 yesterday).”

The headline German IFO Business Climate Index rose to 101.8 in June versus last month's 99.2, beating the consensus estimates of 100.6. Meanwhile, th

German IFO Business Climate Index came in at 101.8 in June.IFO Current Economic Assessment rose to 99.6 this month.June German IFO Expectations Index arrived at 104.00The headline German IFO Business Climate Index rose to 101.8 in June versus last month's 99.2, beating the consensus estimates of 100.6. Meanwhile, the Current Economic Assessment arrived at 99.6 points in the reported month as compared to last month's 95.7 and 97.8 anticipated. The IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months, improved further to 104.00 in June from the previous month’s 102.9 reading and better than the market expectations of 103.9. Market reaction EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1930, unimpressed by the above German data, as the US dollar bounces off daily lows. About German IFO The headline IFO business climate index was rebased and recalibrated in April after the IFO research Institute changed series from the base year of 2000 to the base year of 2005 as of May 2011 and then changed series to include services as of April 2018. The survey now includes 9,000 monthly survey responses from firms in the manufacturing, service sector, trade and construction.

Philippines BSP Interest rate decision meets expectations (2)

Germany IFO – Expectations above expectations (103.9) in June: Actual (104)

The greenback fluctuates between gains and losses around the 91.70 area when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY) on Thursday. US Dollar Index looks t

DXY trades within a narrow range around the 91.70 zone.US 10-year yields stay flat near the 1.50% region.Final Q1 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, weekly Claims next on tap.The greenback fluctuates between gains and losses around the 91.70 area when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY) on Thursday. US Dollar Index looks to data The index fades Wednesday’s small advance and extends the consolidation in the lower end of the weekly range, with losses so far contained around the 200-day SMA in the mid-91.00s. In the meantime, yields of the key US 10-year note continue to navigate in a muted fashion around the 1.50% yardstick. On the Fed’s front, Atlanta Fed R.Bostic said on Wednesday that the tapering of the bond-purchase programme could kick in in some months, while he favoured a rate hike next year and sees two rate hikes in 2023. Afterwards, Governor M.Bowman poured some cold water after she suggested that the labour market still runs well below the Fed’s goal. Later in the session, the final Q1 GDP figures are due seconded by Durable Goods Orders, advanced Goods Trade Balance results and the usual Initial Claims. In addition, NY Fed J.Williams (permanent voter, centrist) is also due to speak. What to look for around USD The dollar remains under some mild downside pressure so far this week on the back of the improved mood in the risk complex. The likeliness that the tapering talk could kick in before anyone had anticipated and the view of higher rates in 2023 (or before) fuelled the sharp bounce in the buck to levels last seen in mid-April and introduced some uncertainty into the debate surrounding the extension of the “transient” inflation. The strong upside in DXY was also supported by higher yields in the shorter end of the curve, while yields of the key 10-year note stay muted around recent lows. In the meantime, further progress on the reopening of the economy, the vaccine rollout and results from key fundamentals remain key for the dollar’s price action/sentiment in the short-term horizon.Key events in the US this week: Final Q1 GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Initial Claims (Thursday) – Core PCE, final June Consumer Sentiment (Friday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Biden’s plans to support infrastructure and families, worth nearly $6 trillion. US-China trade conflict under the Biden’s administration. Tapering speculation vs. economic recovery. US real interest rates vs. Europe. Could US fiscal stimulus lead to overheating? US Dollar Index relevant levels Now, the index is losing 0.01% at 91.78 and faces the next support at 91.51 (weekly low Jun.23) followed by 91.11 (100-day SMA) and finally 89.53 (monthly low May 25). On the other hand, a breakout of 92.40 (monthly high Jun.18) would open the door to 92.46 (23.6% Fibo level of the 2020-2021 drop) and finally 93.43 (2021 high Mar.21).

Germany IFO – Current Assessment registered at 99.6 above expectations (97.8) in June

Germany IFO – Business Climate above forecasts (100.6) in June: Actual (101.8)

Amid escalating Sino-Australian trade row, China lodges complaints with the World Trade Organization (WTO) over Australia’s anti-dumping, anti-subsidy

Amid escalating Sino-Australian trade row, China lodges complaints with the World Trade Organization (WTO) over Australia’s anti-dumping, anti-subsidy measures against Beijing’s exports of railway wheels, wind towers and stainless-steel sinks. China’s Commerce Ministry’s spokesman Gao Feng said that they hope Australia adopts concrete measures to make bilateral trade back to a normal track. Market reaction AUD/USD is little changed by the above headlines, keeping its range around 0.7575 so far this Thursday. The spot trades modestly flat on the day.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Thursday that the central bank will continue to support corporate funding, as it is likely to

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Thursday that the central bank will continue to support corporate funding, as it is likely to remain under stress. Additional comments Consumption stagnating, exports and output are rising steadily. Capex picking up. Pandemic-related steps remain important in guiding policy for time being. Japan's financial system stable as a whole. Supporting private-sector efforts on climate change will help stabilize the economy, financial system in long term. Financial institutions' focus will shift from providing liquidity to borrowers to supporting business operations, efforts toward reform. Read: USD/JPY Price Analysis: 111.00 remains a tough nut to crack ahead of US data

The NZD/USD pair edged higher through the early European session and climbed to the 0.7065 region in the last hour, back closer to the weekly tops set

NZD/USD gained positive traction for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday.The risk-on mood, a subdued USD demand remained supportive of the move up.A pickup in the US bond yields might help limit the USD downfall and cap gains.The NZD/USD pair edged higher through the early European session and climbed to the 0.7065 region in the last hour, back closer to the weekly tops set on Wednesday. A combination of factors assisted the NZD/USD pair to gain traction for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday, with bulls looking to build on this week's solid rebound from multi-month lows. The underlying bullish sentiment in the financial markets was seen as one of the key factors that benefitted the perceived riskier kiwi. Apart from this, a subdued US dollar price action extended some additional support to the major. The USD, so far, has struggled to capitalize to build on last week's post-FOMC strong positive move amid mixed signals on the US inflation. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that inflation is rising due to pent-up demand and supply bottlenecks and that the price pressures should ease on their own. Separately, two Fed officials said on Wednesday that the high inflation in the US would last longer than expected. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday that inflation will remain well above the Fed's 2% target and that he now expects interest rates need to rise in late 2022. Adding to this, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman indicated that the recovery in the labour market and spending on goods and services have contributed to the upward pressure on consumer prices. Both, however, agreed that the price increase will prove temporary. That said, a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields acted as a tailwind for the greenback. This, in turn, could hold traders from placing any aggressive bets. This, in turn, might keep a lid on any runaway rally for the NZD/USD pair, at least for the time being. Market participants now look forward to a slew of important US macro data for some short-term trading opportunities later during the early North American session. The US economic docket highlights the release of the final Q1 GDP print, Durable Goods Orders, the usual Initial Weekly Jobless Claims and Goods Trade Balance figures for May. This, along with the US bond yields and a scheduled speech by New York Fed President John Williams, will influence the USD price dynamics. Apart from this, the broader market risk sentiment might also provide some impetus to the NZD/USD pair. Technical levels to watch  

Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) dipped from previous 1.7% to 1.3% in May

Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY): 7.9% (May) vs 5.6%

The UK Environment Secretary George Eustice said on Thursday that they are “getting some positive indications over sausages.” more to come ...

The UK Environment Secretary George Eustice said on Thursday that they are “getting some positive indications over sausages.” When asked about the so-called "sausage war", "I think we're getting some positive indications and it's always our view that it's better if we can reach an agreement with the European Union on these things.” "We're still in dialogue with the European Union about some longer-*term solutions on the wider issues, about export health certificates, and while those are ongoing it makes sense for them for a few more months to leave the current arrangement we have in place," he added.  

USD/JPY is making another attempt to regain the 111.00 level, reversing a dip from daily lows of 110.77. At the time of writing, the spot trades 0.09%

USD/JPY is off 15-month highs, under pressure below 111.00. DXY sees some fresh selling while the yen cheers Japan’s PM Suga’s comments. Focus shifts to US Durable Goods Orders for fresh impetus.USD/JPY is making another attempt to regain the 111.00 level, reversing a dip from daily lows of 110.77. At the time of writing, the spot trades 0.09% lower at 110.84, undermined a fresh bout of selling seen in the US dollar despite the higher Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the yen draws support from the latest comments from the Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, as he pledged to speed up vaccinations to boost the economic recovery. Attention now turns towards the US data dump, including the Durable Goods, and the infrastructure stimulus updates for fresh trading impulse. From a near-term technical perspective, the spot is testing the rising wedge hurdle at 111.00 on the daily chart, eyeing a daily closing above the last in order to confirm an upside breakout. The bulls will then retest the 15-month tops of 111.11 reached a day before. The bullish target is envisioned at 111.50, a psychological level. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned south after testing the overbought territory, backing the latest correction. However, the bullish bias remains intact, given that the leading indicators still hold comfortably above the midline. USD/JPY daily chart However, if the bulls continue to face rejection above the rising wedge hurdle, a retracement towards Wednesday’s low of 110.62 cannot be ruled out. June 18 highs at 110.48 could come to the rescue of the buyers. Further south, the 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at 109.96 could challenge the bearish commitments. USD/JPY additional levels to watch  

Turkey Manufacturing Confidence rose from previous 110.3 to 113 in June

Spain Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with forecasts (-0.5%) in 1Q

Spain Gross Domestic Product (YoY) in line with forecasts (-4.3%) in 1Q

Turkey Capacity Utilization up to 76.6% in June from previous 75.3%

The AUD/USD pair edged higher heading into the European session and was last seen hovering near the top end of its intraday trading range, around the

AUD/USD edged higher for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday.The risk-on mood extended some support to the perceived riskier aussie.A subdued USD price action remained supportive of the intraday uptick.The AUD/USD pair edged higher heading into the European session and was last seen hovering near the top end of its intraday trading range, around the 0.7580 region. Following the previous day's pullback from the vicinity of the 0.7600 mark, a combination of factors assisted the AUD/USD pair to gain some positive traction for the fourth straight session on Thursday. The underlying bullish sentiment in the financial markets was seen as a key factor lending support to the perceived riskier aussie. Apart from this, a subdued US dollar demand extended some additional support to the major. The USD, so far, has struggled to capitalize to build on last week's post-FOMC strong move up amid mixed signals on the US inflation. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that inflation is rising due to pent-up demand and supply bottlenecks and that the price pressures should ease on their own. Separately, two Fed officials said on Wednesday that the high inflation in the US would last longer than expected. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Wednesday that inflation will remain well above the Fed's 2% target and that he now expects interest rates need to rise in late 2022. Adding to this, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman indicated that the recovery in the labour market and spending on goods and services have contributed to the upward pressure on consumer prices. Both, however, agreed that the price increase will prove temporary. That said, a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields acted as a tailwind for the greenback. This, in turn, could hold traders from placing any aggressive bets and keep a lid on any runaway rally for the AUD/USD pair. Market participants now look forward to a slew of important US macro data for some impetus later during the early North American session. The US economic docket highlights the release of the final Q1 GDP print, Durable Goods Orders, the usual Initial Weekly Jobless Claims and Goods Trade Balance figures for May. This, along with the US bond yields and the broader market risk sentiment, might produce some trading opportunities around the AUD/USD pair. Technical levels to watch  

France Business Climate in Manufacturing below forecasts (109) in June: Actual (107)

The German IFO survey for June is due for release later today at 0800 GMT. The headline IFO Business Climate Index is seen higher at 100.6 versus 99.2

The German IFO Business Survey Overview The German IFO survey for June is due for release later today at 0800 GMT. The headline IFO Business Climate Index is seen higher at 100.6 versus 99.2 previous. The Current Assessment sub-index is expected to rise to 97.8 this month vs. 95.7 prior while the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is likely to arrive at 103.9 in the reported month vs. 102.9 last. Deviation impact on EUR/USD Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 3 and 30 pips in deviations up to 3.0 to -4.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips. How could affect EUR/USD? EUR/USD holds steady below 1.1950 ahead of the German data, undermined by a buoyant US dollar across the board. The spot consolidates the retreat from four-day highs of 1.1970 reached a day before. The spot faces immediate resistance at the 1.1950 psychological level, above which Wednesday’s high will get tested. Alternatively, disappointing data could resume the corrective pullback towards 1.1900. If the selling pressure intensifies then the daily classic support at 1.1876 will come into play. Key notesForex Today: Dollar’s demand resurfaces ahead of key US data, BOE set for a hawkish tilt?EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.1950 on firmer USD, German data eyedAbout the German IFO Business Climate This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

NZD/USD is forecast to trade between 0.6960 and 0.7105 in the next weeks, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “While we expect

NZD/USD is forecast to trade between 0.6960 and 0.7105 in the next weeks, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “While we expected NZD to strengthen yesterday, we were of the view that ‘the strong resistance at 0.7050 is unlikely to come under threat’. The subsequent NZD strength exceeded our expectation by a fair bit as it rose to 0.7069. The rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself but there is room for the advance in NZD to test 0.7075 first before easing. The next resistance at 0.7105 is not expected to come into the picture. On the downside, a break of 0.7015 (minor support is at 0.7030) would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted yesterday (23 Jun, spot at 0.7015) that ‘downward momentum is beginning to wane’ and ‘the odds for NZD to weaken to 0.6870 have diminished’. The subsequent break of our ‘strong resistance’ level at 0.7050 (high has been 0.7069) indicates that the weak phase in NZD that started early last week has come to an end. The current movement is viewed as the early stages of a consolidation phase and NZD is likely to trade between 0.6960 and 0.7105 for now.”

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, June 24: The US dollar clings to the recent recovery gains amid cautious optimism. Investors remain jittery

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, June 24: The US dollar clings to the recent recovery gains amid cautious optimism. Investors remain jittery amid mixed signals from the Fed policymakers, awaiting a fresh batch of US economic data for fresh cues on the Fed’s monetary policy path. Read: US Durable Goods Orders May Preview: Is the consumer really absent?Asian stocks trade mostly lower, tracking the listless performance on Wall Street overnight. The futures tied to the S&P 500 index gain 0.20% amid US stimulus hopes while the US Treasury yields also hold at higher levels.   A bipartisan group of US senators said that it had reached a deal on a "framework" for an infrastructure spending bill and are likely to discuss it with President Joe Biden. However, US House of Representatives Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer is not endorsing the Bipartisan bill outrightly until they see the details, according to the US media reports. The G10 fx space remains in subdued trading ranges, with AUD//USD keeping its range below 0.7600 while USD/JPY is trading below 111.00, correcting from 15-month tops.EUR/USD is on the defensive below 1.1950 despite the upbeat Eurozone PMI reports. GBP/USD is easing towards 1.3950, as the pound remains undermined by the Brexit deadlock over the Northern Ireland (NI) protocol issue and a 41% jump in the Delta Plus covid cases in the UK. Investors also turn cautious ahead of the BOE monetary policy meeting. The BOE is expected to maintain its monetary policy setting, although could hint at a potential tightening, given that the policymakers have been hawkish as of late.Gold price is under pressure below $1780 amid a broadly firmer US dollar, having faced rejection at $1794 on multiple occasions. Bitcoin is back in the red but in a narrow trading range, challenging the $32K support area once again.  Like this article? Help us with some feedback by answering this survey:Rate this content (function() { var qs,js,q,s,d=document, gi=d.getElementById, ce=d.createElement, gt=d.getElementsByTagName, id="typef_orm_share", b="https://embed.typeform.com/"; if(!gi.call(d,id)){ js=ce.call(d,"script"); js.id=id; js.src=b+"embed.js"; q=gt.call(d,"script")[0]; q.parentNode.insertBefore(js,q) } })()

Palladium (XPD/USD) picks up bids around $2,620, up 0.21% intraday, as European traders brace for Thursday’s bell. The precious metal consolidates the

Palladium stays firmer around weekly top, extends bounce off three-month low.Bearish chart formation, sustained trading below 200-SMA probe buyers.Late May’s bottom add to the upside filters, sellers will have a bumpy road below $2,460.Palladium (XPD/USD) picks up bids around $2,620, up 0.21% intraday, as European traders brace for Thursday’s bell. The precious metal consolidates the previous week’s heavy losses following a bounce off a four-month low, portrayed the last Friday. In doing so, palladium prices print a bearish chart pattern, rising wedge, on the four-hour (4H) play. Not only the bearish formation but receding strength of the bullish MACD and challenges to further upside raised by the Momentum line also need palladium buyers to remain cautious. Furthermore, the commodity’s sustained trading below 200-SMA becomes an extra reason for sellers to remain hopeful. Hence, a clear downside break of $2,595 will be a trigger to the quote’s south-run challenging the monthly bottom surrounding $2,460. During the fall, Tuesday’s swing low near $2,550, followed by the $2,500 threshold, will test the Palladium bears. Meanwhile, the bright metal’s run-up beyond $2,636 will defy the bearish chart pattern by directing the bulls toward a monthly horizontal hurdle near $2,730-35, with the $2,700 round figure likely acting as an intermediate halt. It’s worth noting that palladium buyers won’t be in full control until successfully crossing the 200-SMA level of $2,790, also the $2,800 psychological magnet to be on a safer side. Palladium: Four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

USD/CAD extends the previous day's sluggish movement on Thursday with no meaningful price action. The pair confides in a very close trading band compr

USD/CAD remains unchanged largely in the early European session.Pair needs a clear breakout around 1.2300 level to gain meaningful traction Momentum oscillators hold onto the positive territory.USD/CAD extends the previous day's sluggish movement on Thursday with no meaningful price action. The pair confides in a very close trading band comprising 15 pips movement, At the time of writing, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2307, up 0.01% so far. USD/CAD daily chart On the daily chart, the USD/CAD pair is facing downside pressure since the beginning of the week, after touching the high of 1.2487. The descending trendline from the April 21 top acts as a barrier for the price movement. Now, if price sustained above the session’s high, then it could crawl back to the 1.2350 horizontal resistance level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator reads at 57, which implies that the bulls have the potential to retest June 22 high at 1.2403. That said, if USD/CAD successfully closed above the 1.2403 mark, then it would head toward the week high at 1.2487. Alternatively, if price makes a sustained move below the 1.2300 mark, then immediate support could be found at the previous day’s low at 1.2252. The next area of support would emerge at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2219 followed by June 16 low at 1.2157. USD/CAD additional levels
 

In light of flash data from CME Group for natural gas futures markets, open interest rose by more than 15K contracts after five daily pullbacks in a r

In light of flash data from CME Group for natural gas futures markets, open interest rose by more than 15K contracts after five daily pullbacks in a row on Wednesday. In the same line, volume clinched the largest single day build since June 11, this time by nearly 142K contracts. Natural Gas stays focused on $3.40 Prices of natural gas recorded new 2021 highs on Wednesday. The move was on the back of increasing open interest and volume, allowing for the continuation of the uptrend in the very near term. Against this, the commodity now targets the 2020 highs around the $3.40 mark per MMBtu.

CME Group’s advanced figures for crude oil futures markets noted traders increased their open interest positions by around 15.1K contracts following f

CME Group’s advanced figures for crude oil futures markets noted traders increased their open interest positions by around 15.1K contracts following four consecutive daily pullbacks on Wednesday. Volume, instead, shrank for the second session in a row, this time by more than 187K contracts. WTI remains overbought, targets $75.00WTI prices briefly surpassed the $74.00 mark on Wednesday, although they closed just above $73.00. The move was on the back of rising open interest and another pullback in volume. That, plus the current overbought levels hint at the view that a correction lower could be shaping up in the very near term. On the upside, the next hurdle comes in at the $75.00 mark per barrel.

Gold (XAU/USD) portrays the market’s indecision with a 0.23% intraday loss near $1,773, despite recently bouncing off the day’s low, heading into Thur

Gold remains pressured despite bouncing off intraday low.Firmer USD weighs on the metal but sluggish markets await fresh clues.US Durable Goods Orders for May, Weekly Jobless Claims are the key for fresh direction.Covid updates, US stimulus and Fedspeak become important too.Gold (XAU/USD) portrays the market’s indecision with a 0.23% intraday loss near $1,773, despite recently bouncing off the day’s low, heading into Thursday’s European session. Chatters over the Fedspeak and US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plan are all around whereas the fears of the Delta Plus covid variant also favor the gold sellers. Though, a lack of clear direction and a light calendar keeps traders waiting for the fresh catalyst to have a better view of the markets. After Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s reaffirmation that the inflation risks are transitory, posing no major challenge to the Fed’s current policy, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Eric Rosengren expects, “most price increases will be reversed going into next year.” On the same line were comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen saying, “Most measures of inflation expectations remain well-anchored.” On the contrary, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan stayed hawkish over the Fed’s next moves but got fewer accolades. Meanwhile, US Senators are in a rush to pass President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending bill ahead of a two-week holiday period but a vast difference prevails between the Democrats’ push and Republicans’ demands. Hence, the deadlock weighs the market sentiment and puts a bid under the US dollar. It’s worth noting that China’s warning to the US over having warships in the Taiwan Straits didn’t stop the Biden administration from restricting exports to five companies from Beijing, adding to the risk-off mood. Furthermore, fears of the covid variant regain traction in the US as an Epidemiologist warns over the jump in the cases in this fall. The Delta Plus variant of the coronavirus (COVID-19) recently pushed back the UK’s unlock deadline and is the key concern for the British government amid the latest 41% jump in daily cases. Given the lack of major data/events, gold traders seek fresh clues from the US Durable Goods Orders for May, expected 2.7% versus -1.3% prior. In addition to that, headlines concerning the virus and US stimulus, coupled with the Sino-American tussles, can also offer a strong guide to gold prices. Technical analysis Gold prices justify Wednesday’s bearish Doji below 100-day SMA (DMA) to aim for four-month-old horizontal support near $1,960. However, any further weakness needs a daily closing below $1,755, comprising the mid-March tops, to keep sellers hopeful. Should the quote stays pressured below $1,755, April 13 low near $1,745 and the $1,700 threshold may act as intermediate halts during the south-run to the yearly low surrounding $1,675. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of 100-DMA, around $1,793, will seek validation from the $1,800 round-figure before targeting the early May’s swing high near $1,845. Though, gold’s upside past $1,845 will have a bumpy road that starts with $1,855 and ends on the commodity’s daily close beyond $1,910. To sum up, gold sellers do firm the reins but aren’t in full control and hence need fresh catalysts to portray a decisive move. Gold: Daily Chart Trend: Further weakness expected Also read… Fed’s liquidity circus and gold Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD drops back below $1780 amid cautious market mood  

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, Cable is still expected to navigate within the 1.3820-1.4020 range for the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour v

In opinion of FX Strategists at UOB Group, Cable is still expected to navigate within the 1.3820-1.4020 range for the next weeks. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday GBP could ‘edge up to the 1.3980’ but we were of the view that ‘1.4020 is not expected to come into the picture’. GBP subsequently rose to 1.4001 before pulling back. Upward pressure is beginning to ease and GBP is unlikely to strengthen much further. For today, GBP is more likely to trade between 1.3930 and 1.4005.” Next 1-3 weeks: “On Tuesday (22 Jun, spot at 1.3920), we held the view that the recent weakness in GBP has run its course and we expect GBP to ‘trade within a 1.3820/1.4020 range’. GBP rose to 1.4001 yesterday (23 Jun) before easing off. There is no change in our view and we continue to regard the current movement as part of a consolidation. In other words, GBP could trade within a 1.3820/1.4020 for a while more.”

Open interest in gold futures markets rose by just 976 contracts for the first time since June 11 on Wednesday, according to preliminary readings from

Open interest in gold futures markets rose by just 976 contracts for the first time since June 11 on Wednesday, according to preliminary readings from CME Group. In the same line, volume reversed three consecutive daily pullbacks and went up by around 7.7K contracts. Gold stays supported around $1,760Gold charted an inconclusive session midweek amidst rising open interest and volume. That said, further rangebound should not be surprising while the yellow metal remains contained around the $1,760 mark per ounce troy for the time being.

The negative phase in EUR/USD is expected to finish above the 1.1970 level, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Yesterday

The negative phase in EUR/USD is expected to finish above the 1.1970 level, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Yesterday, we highlighted that ‘upward momentum has not improved by much and EUR is unlikely to strengthen much further’ and we expected EUR to ‘trade between 1.1890 and 1.1960’. EUR subsequently rose to 1.1969 before pulling back to close slightly lower at 1.1925 (-0.11%). Momentum indicators are mostly ‘neutral’ and EUR is likely trade between 1.1890 and 1.1960 for today.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Our update from yesterday (23 Jun, spot at 1.1940) still stands. As highlighted, the rebound in EUR has been more resilient than expected and a break of 1.1970 would indicate that the weak phase has run its course. We also indicated that EUR ‘has to move and stay below 1.1890 within these 1 to 2 days or the odds for further EUR weakness would diminish quickly’. EUR subsequently rose to 1.1969 during London hours before easing off. There is still chance, albeit a slim one for EUR to extend its weakness but unless EUR can close below 1.1890 by end of today, it appears increasingly likely that EUR has moved into a consolidation phase. In other words, the weak phase that started early last week is likely coming to an end soon.”

During a press conference on Thursday, the Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Lee Ju-yeol said that he is planning “an orderly exit” from the current easy-m

During a press conference on Thursday, the Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Lee Ju-yeol said that he is planning “an orderly exit” from the current easy-money policy. He said that he is thinking of raising rates “within this year,” though the exact timing and pace will depend on economic conditions. The South Korean central bank has kept its policy rate at a record low of 0.50% since May 2020 to support economic growth, hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Market reaction USD/KRW whipsawed on the comments from Governor Lee, now trading flat around 1,135.

Asian stocks were trading mixed with little or no movement on Thursday. The US dollar remains strong as Investors continue to analyze Fed official’s m

Asia-pacific shares trade cautiously on Thursday.US dollar remains elevated after the Fed's mixed response to inflation.China is ready to work jointly with all parties to build a closer Belt and Road partnership.Asian stocks were trading mixed with little or no movement on Thursday. The US dollar remains strong as Investors continue to analyze Fed official’s mixed view on inflation and its effect on future guidance on interest rates. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-pacific shares outside Japan recorded minute gains of 0.1%. Japan’s Nikkei rose marginally with 0.046% gains, while Shanghai Composite lost 0.3%. It is worth noting that S&P 500 Futures were trading at 4,241, up 0.24% for the day. The US 10 year treasury yields remained below 1.5%, which kept the greenback gains limited. A clear direction in the US bond yields could help gain a clear picture of where equities are headed. In the latest development, the US and China are believed to be discussing a possible meeting of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at a G20 meet in Italy next week. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping wrote a message to the Asia-pacific prominent leaders for a High-Level Conference on Belt and Road Cooperation. This move came after the severe criticism of Beijing policy in the G7 meeting in the previous week.
 

USD/INR pares weekly gains with a recent pullback to 74.20, down 0.05% intraday, amid the initial hour of Thursday’s Indian trading session. In doing

USD/INR snaps two-day uptrend, steps back from intraday top.Doubts over India’s vaccination success join fears of Delta Plus covid variant to back buyers.Indecision over Fed’s next moves, US President Biden’s infrastructure spending passage tests immediate moves.US data, Fedspeak and macro relating to covid, stimulus become important for fresh impulse.USD/INR pares weekly gains with a recent pullback to 74.20, down 0.05% intraday, amid the initial hour of Thursday’s Indian trading session. In doing so, the Indian rupee (INR) pair drops for the first in three days amid the market’s indecision over the coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in India and the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next moves, not to forget US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending plan. INR bulls cheer the latest declines in the COVID-19 cases, easing of virus-led activity restrictions in states and record surge in daily vaccinations. The latest data from the Indian Health Minister, per Reuters, mention a 54,069 daily rise in coronavirus infections, taking a total to 30.08 million, whereas the pandemic-led fatalities increased 1,321 to 391,981. Even so, the New York Times (NYT) gives India 93rd rank for its inoculation, versus 82nd during early June, while marking a meager 3.8% fully vaccinated Indians. On the contrary, the US dollar gains safe-haven bids as Fed policymakers and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen could not convince markets of any challenges to the easy money policies. Also, doubts over how the US Senators will be able to bridge a large gap between the Republicans’ demands and Democrats’ push ahead of a two-week holiday session add to the market jitters. Furthermore, the covid variant fears regain traction in the US after an Epidemiologist warns over the jump in the cases this fall and add to the greenback’s strength. Against this backdrop, Indian shares track mildly bid US stock futures while the US dollar index benefited from a firmer US 10-Treasury yield by the press time. Moving on, USD/INR traders may keep struggling for clues ahead of the key US Durable Goods Orders. Also important will be the comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, as well as virus and stimulus updates. Read: US Durable Goods Orders May Preview: Is the consumer really absent? Technical analysis USD/INR rebound from the 74.00 needs acceptance from mid-April lows near 74.55 to keep the pair buyers hopeful. Otherwise, a 50-day SMA level of 73.64 will be the key to watch during the fresh downside below the weekly low.  

Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY) above forecasts (-2.8%) in 1Q: Actual (-2.4%)

Netherlands, The Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ) below expectations (-0.5%) in 1Q: Actual (-0.8%)

Silver Price (XAG/USD) treads water in the Asian session. Prices move in a very close trading band with no meaningful traction. At the time of writing

Silver consolidates near the $25.80 after a free fall from the $28.00 level.XAG/USD is holding above 200-day SMA indicating emergence of support here.Oversold momentum oscillators warn against aggressive directional bids.Silver Price (XAG/USD) treads water in the Asian session. Prices move in a very close trading band with no meaningful traction.  At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading at $25.89, down 0.02% for the day. XAG/USD daily chart On the daily chart, the white metal has been consolidating in a broader trading range of $27.00-$28-50, before breaking the range on June 16. XAG/USD tested the levels last seen in April. If price makes sustained moves above the intraday high at $25.96, then it could continue to move higher. The first target could be found at the previous day’s high at $26.29. The  Moving Average Convergence Divergence ( MACD) indicator holds onto the oversold zone with stretched selling conditions. Any uptick in the MACD would allow bulls to take over the $26.60 horizontal resistance level. That said, XAG/USD  would be motivated to test the high of June 17 in the vicinity of the  $27.25 area. Alternatively, if price decisively breaks the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $25.70, then it could meet its first lower target at the low of June 21 at $25.55. A daily close below the mentioned level could prompt the bulls to march toward April 15 low at $25.32 followed by the $25.00 horizontal support level. XAG/USD additional level
 

USD/CHF buyers jostle with the key short-term hurdle around 0.9195, up 0.10% intraday, ahead of Thursday’s European session. The major currency pair’s

USD/CHF holds onto previous day’s recovery moves from weekly low.Bullish chart formation, upbeat RSI keep buyers hopeful.Sellers may wait for two-week-old support break for fresh entries.USD/CHF buyers jostle with the key short-term hurdle around 0.9195, up 0.10% intraday, ahead of Thursday’s European session. The major currency pair’s rebound on Wednesday forms a bullish chart pattern on the four-hour (4H) play. With the RSI line flashing a strong level, above 50 but not overbought, the pair becomes capable to cross the 0.9200 resistance and confirm the bullish flag formation. The sustained break of the 0.9200 enables the USD/CHF bulls to aim for a theoretical target surrounding the 0.9300 mark, also comprising multiple tops marked during mid-March. During the move, the latest high near 0.9240 may probe the pair’s upside whereas March’s top near 0.9375 could test the run-up challenging the yearly peak of 0.9472. Alternatively, pullback moves seem less challenging until staying beyond an ascending support line from June 11, near 0.9060. However, the stated flag’s support line near 0.9145 can offer immediate rest should the USD/CHF sellers sneak in. Overall, USD/CHF portrays a bullish trend and the confirmation of flag can add strength to the upside momentum. USD/CHF four-hour chart Trend: Bullish  

GBP/USD tilts southward below 1.4000, mildly offered around 1.3960, heading into the key London open on Thursday. While the pre-BOE caution pokes the

GBP/USD retreats from intraday high, snaps three-day uptrend.UK’s delayed unlock, Delta Plus fears and Brexit woes probe bulls eyeing hawkish BOE statement.BOE rate, bond purchases likely to remain unchanged.US data, Fedspeak should also be followed for fresh impulse.GBP/USD tilts southward below 1.4000, mildly offered around 1.3960, heading into the key London open on Thursday. While the pre-BOE caution pokes the cable buyers after a three-day uptrend, the pair remains on the front foot for the first week in June amid UK policymakers’ optimism. The virus-led pessimism and the Brexit deadlock join the cautious sentiment ahead of the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy to weigh on the quote. That said, a 41% jump in the Delta Plus covid infections and uncertainties over the July 19 deadline for the UK’s complete unlock probes optimists at the “Old Lady” (BOE). The same could well be witnessed in the recently softer economics, namely the preliminary readings of the UK’s June monthly Markit PMIs. Brexit woes remain critical for the GBP/USD traders even as the European Union (EU) is ready for a mild leeway concerning the sausage war, per Bloomberg. The reason could be traced from the British policymakers’ comments, spotted in The Independent, suggesting a lack of readiness to alter the demands over the Northern Ireland (NI) protocol. Additionally, Irish fishermen show dissatisfaction with the fishing quotas and are ready to protest over the same, signaled the Sky News. On the other hand, Fed speakers and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen struggle to convince markets of no rate hike and tapering fears. At the same time, US Senators are in a rush to pass President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending bill ahead of a two-week holiday period. It’s worth noting that the coronavirus (COVID-19) variant fears regain traction in the US after an Epidemiologist warns over the jump in the cases this fall. Amid these plays, stock futures are mildly bid and the US 10-Treasury yields keep the previous day’s recovery moves, which in turn favor the US dollar index (DXY) to pare the weekly losses during the second positive day. Moving on, BOE policymaker’s voting count and statements conveying the economic optimism will be the key to recall the GBP/USD bulls. Alternatively, comments suggesting a delay in the monetary policy adjustments may extend the latest pullback. It should be noted that the Fed’s tapering clues do inflate hopes from the English central bank. Read: BoE Preview: Cautiously hawkish, hints on tightening? Following the BOE, US Durable Goods Orders and comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be crucial as greenback traders remain skeptical over policymakers’ efforts to tame the tapering and rate hike woes. Read: US Durable Goods Orders May Preview: Is the consumer really absent? Technical analysis GBP/USD remains above the key hurdles, namely a 100-day SMA level of 1.3950 and a horizontal area from early April, around 1.3925-15, amid upbeat RSI conditions to keep buyers hopeful. However, the 1.4000 threshold and the late April tops near 1.4010, followed by 50-day SMA near 1.4035, test the cable’s short-term upside moves.  

The buying interest in the US dollar keeps EUR/USD edgy on Thursday morning Asian’s session. After testing the high of 1.2263 in late May, the Euro lo

EUR/USD struggles to hold onto the gains in the Asian session.The Euro gains some ground on upbeat economic data.Uptick in US treasury yields underpins the demand in the US dollar.The buying interest in the US dollar keeps EUR/USD edgy on Thursday morning Asian’s session. After testing the high of 1.2263 in late May, the Euro lost the battle against the greenback. It breached the coveted 1.1900 mark and tested the lows of 1.8477 in the week. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1924, down 0.01% for the day. The US 10 year benchmark yields trade at 1.49% with gains of 0.34%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) follows the treasury yields and stands strong at 91.82. Mixed comments from Fed’s official on inflation and interest rates outlook affects the greenback movement. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he expected interest rates to rise in late 2022 with surging economic growth at 7% and inflation above the Fed’s 2% target this year. Both Bostic and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman believed recent price pressure may take longer than anticipated for them to fade. Meantime, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Wednesday warned Congress about the risk of debt default and a probable new financial crisis. The comments weigh on the sentiment of the US dollar. In addition to that,  the US senators had reached a deal on the infrastructure spending bill and planned to discuss it with President Joe Biden today. On the other hand, the shared currency gains were limited due to the attractive valuation of the USD. The upbeat domestic economic data holds the lower ground for the Euro. The IHS Markit Eurozone Service PMI rose to 58.0 in June, well above the market forecast at 57.8. The Consumer Confidence Indicator gained 1.8 points, slightly higher than the market consensus at -3.0. As for now, investors are glued to the release of a host of data in the US. Durable Goods Orders, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Initial Jobless Claim data. In the Eurozone, German IFO Business Climate data eyed to gauge the market sentiment.  EUR/USD additional levels
 

China Banking and Insurance Regulator Official said on Thursday that they “expect China’s monthly PPI to hit 10%, adding pressure to consumption.” “Me

China Banking and Insurance Regulator Official said on Thursday that they “expect China’s monthly PPI to hit 10%, adding pressure to consumption.” “Medium- and small-sized financial institutions face risks from defaults of local government investment arms and property firms,” the Chinese regulator added. Related readsUSD/CNH extends pullback from two-month top amid sluggish USD, cautious optimismUS, China discuss possible meeting at G20 next week – Reuters

Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said late Wednesday, "we have also a role in taming and containing inflation, by making sur

Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said late Wednesday, "we have also a role in taming and containing inflation, by making sure that this market doesn't get out of hand." Additional comments It’s not clear whether oil prices are gaining due to "real supply and demand." Because of "expectations and trajectories that are excessively optimistic." His comments come ahead of next week's OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) meeting, scheduled on July 1. Read: WTI eyes the $75 critical level 

USD/CNH bears flirt with intraday low surrounding 6.4760, following the first negative daily closing in nine days, amid early Thursday. The cross-curr

USD/CNH remains pressured around intraday low after snapping eight-day uptrend.Market sentiment dwindles amid a lack of major data/events.Fedspeak, stimulus hopes favor buyers versus Sino-American tussles, covid variant woes.USD/CNH bears flirt with intraday low surrounding 6.4760, following the first negative daily closing in nine days, amid early Thursday. The cross-currency pair jumped to the highest since April 23 the previous day before snapping the monthly uptrend. Behind the moves could be the market’s indecision amid a light calendar and mixed clues. While sentiment-positive headlines from the Fed and the US Senate favor the latest pullback in pair prices, coronavirus (COVID-19) updates and the Beijing-Washington tension lure buyers. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s rejection of the reflation fears echoes the Fed policymakers’ latest efforts in taming the rate hike calls. The same could be reflected in the latest Fed rate hike expectations that stepped back from December 2022 a week ago to February 2023 of late. Also favoring the risk-on mood could be comments from the US Senators suggesting increased odds favoring US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending passage before a two-week holiday period. Not only a slew of Democratic Senators but Mitt Romney from Republicans also sounds optimistic in the latest updates concerning Biden’s $1.2 trillion infrastructure spending plan. Alternatively, a warning from a US Epidemiologist over the jump in the cases in this fall joins a 41% increase in Delta Plus variant cases in the UK to weigh on the risk appetite. Further, China’s warning to the US over having warships in the Taiwan Straits didn’t stop the Biden administration from restricting exports to five companies from Beijing, which in turn tests the market optimists. Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures print mild gains but the US Treasury yields and the US dollar index (DXY) remain sluggish by the press time. Moving on, risk catalysts remain in the driver’s seat but the US Durable Goods Orders for May, expected 2.7% versus -1.3% prior, could offer clues to the reflation chatters and reverse USD/CNH losses if matching upbeat forecasts. Read: US Durable Goods Orders May Preview: Is the consumer really absent? Technical analysis Unless declining back below the convergence of 100-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of March-May downside, around 6.4700, USD/CNH buyers stay hopeful.  

Despite a deal reached on a "framework" for an infrastructure spending bill, US House of Representatives Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leade

Despite a deal reached on a "framework" for an infrastructure spending bill, US House of Representatives Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer are not endorsing the Bipartisan bill outrightly until they see the details, according to the US media reports. Schumer: “We’ll let them announce it first. Let’s see it. We support the concepts we’ve heard about it.” Earlier on, a Democratic negotiator, Joe Manchin, said after the group met with White House officials, ​"we came to an agreement on a plan that we have and we're just going to try to wrap it up tomorrow.” White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said, “the group made progress towards an outline of a potential agreement, and the president has invited the group to come to the White House tomorrow to discuss this in person.” A bipartisan group of 21 senators, or "G-21." has been working on a $1.2 trillion, eight-year bipartisan infrastructure plan. more to come ...

At the highs of 132. 70, EUR/JPY is testing the critical counter-trendline and the confluence of the 21-EMA as well as the horizontal resistance with

Bears are moving in at an acritical level of resistance confluence. EUR/JPY bears are seeking a test of the 4-hour support structure. At the highs of 132. 70, EUR/JPY is testing the critical counter-trendline and the confluence of the 21-EMA as well as the horizontal resistance with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement slightly below.  The following illustrates the bearish bias. EUR/JPY daily chart 4-hour chart The break of support structure near 132 the figure will be key where the 21 EMA is also located in the same vicinity. 

NZD/USD eases to 0.7042, following a pullback from a fortnight-old resistance, amid early Thursday. Even so, the kiwi bears remain unconvinced as MACD

NZD/USD probes three-day uptrend with a short-term key resistance line.Bullish MACD, weekly support line keep buyers hopeful.Horizontal area from early May adds to the upside filters.NZD/USD eases to 0.7042, following a pullback from a fortnight-old resistance, amid early Thursday. Even so, the kiwi bears remain unconvinced as MACD flashes bullish signals and the prices are well beyond the weekly support line. Hence, the latest weakness in the quote may aim for the immediate rising trend line support, near the 0.7000 threshold, to back the bears. Following that, the yearly bottom surrounding 0.6925 and the 0.6900 round figures will be in the spotlight. During the fall, Tuesday’s bottom surrounding 0.6960 may offer an intermediate halt to the NZD/USD sellers. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of the stated resistance line from June 11, around 0.7070, won’t be a green pass for the NZD/USD bulls as a horizontal region comprising lows marked during May and mid-June, close to 0.7105–15, will act as an additional barrier to the north. It’s worth noting that there are multiple bumps to the pair’s upward trajectory beyond 0.7115 until it crosses the June 10 swing low of 0.7165, which in turn can test the pair buyers. NZD/USD four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

S&P 500 Futures stay firmers around 4,220, up 0.20% intraday, during Thursday’s Asian session. The risk barometer stepped back from the weekly top the

S&P 500 Futures fails to extend the previous day’s pullback moves amid a quiet session.US Treasury Secretary Yellen backs Fed policymakers’ defensive play.Senators sound optimistic over Biden’s infrastructure spending ahead of two-week holiday.US Durable Goods Orders, risk catalysts eyed for fresh impetus.S&P 500 Futures stay firmers around 4,220, up 0.20% intraday, during Thursday’s Asian session. The risk barometer stepped back from the weekly top the previous day before the markets believed in the Fed’s defense to easy money policies, as well as increasing odds favoring the passage of another stimulus from US President Joe Biden. Not only a slew of Democratic Senators but Mitt Romney from Republicans also sounds optimistic in the latest updates concerning Biden’s $1.2 trillion infrastructure spending plan. The US policymakers are in a rush to finalize and pass the bill ahead of a two-week-long holiday season. Read: Wall Street Close: Nasdaq stays firmer even as Dow, S&P 500 retreat Also on the positive side could be the headlines concerning US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s rejection of the reflation fears, indirectly favoring the majority of the Fed policymakers in turning down rate hike calls. It’s worth noting that expectations of a Fed rate hike recently stepped back from December 2022 to February 2023. On the contrary, fears of the covid variant regain traction in the US as an Epidemiologist warns over the jump in the cases in this fall. The Delta Plus variant of the coronavirus (COVID-19) recently pushed back the UK’s unlock deadline and is the key concern for the British government amid the latest 41% jump in daily cases. Elsewhere, China’s warning to the US over having warships in the Taiwan Straits didn’t stop the Biden administration from restricting exports to five companies from Beijing. Talking about data, US Markit PMIs were mixed with manufacturing gaining more than services. Further, activity numbers from the UK were on the same line but those from European Union remained firmer for June. Amid these plays, Wall Street closed mixed and the US Treasury yields struggled to stay positive. Looking forward, investors will keep their eyes on the BOE monetary policy and the US Durable Goods Orders for fresh impulse. However, major attention will be given to how the American Senators break the deadlock over the much-awaited extra stimulus, as well as the Fedspeak and covid headlines.

AUD/NZD trades on a lower note in the initial Asian session. The pair continues to skid lower in the previous six sessions while holding the support n

AUD/NZD continues to move in a range bound manner on Thursday.Pair envisioned more losses if price decisively breaks 1.0740.Momentum oscillator holds onto the positive territory with a neutral outlook.AUD/NZD trades on a lower note in the initial Asian session. The pair continues to skid lower in the previous six sessions while holding the support near the 1.0740.  At the time of writing, AUD/NZD is trading at 1.0746, down 0.07% for the day. AUD/NZD daily chart On the daily chart, the AUD/NZD cross has been consolidating near the 1.0800 mark with multiple top formations from the previous week. The ascending trendline from the low of 1.0599 acts as a defensive for the bulls. A sustained move below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0740 could push AUD/NZD lower toward the 1.0720 horizontal support line, which also coincides with the bullish sloping line. A break of the above trendline would invite fresh round selling opportunities for AUD/NZD bears. In doing so, the bears would aim for the low of June 4 at 1.0702. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence(MACD)indicator reads above midline with a neutral outlook. Any downtick in the MACD could bring the 1.0675 horizontal support level back into action.
  
Alternatively, if price moves higher then, it could test the previous day’s high at 1.0786. Market participants would then aim for the 1.0820 horizontal resistance level followed by May 15 high at 1.0850. AUD/NZD additional levels
 

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) reference rate at 6.4824 against the estimated 6.4805 and the previous 6.4

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan (CNY) reference rate at 6.4824 against the estimated 6.4805 and the previous 6.4621. About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland. The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.   

EUR/USD and the DXY both reached their 38.2% Fibonaccis this week where a continuation of the dominant trends would be now expected to eventuate on a

The value of the greenback is on focus as the euro sets up for a bearish extension. DXY is a mirror image and is poised to rally. EUR/USD and the DXY both reached their 38.2% Fibonaccis this week where a continuation of the dominant trends would be now expected to eventuate on a break of key structures. DXY is an index of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, most heavily weighted to the euro by 57.6%. The Index goes up when the US dollar gains strength when compared to other currencies and is pressured when the euro strengthens.  The following illustrates the bearish bias in EUR/USD and therefore, the reverse in the DXY from a daily perspective.  EUR/USD daily chart The price is expected to now move in to test the support structure at 1.1911. 1.1920 would be then expected to act as a resistance on a retest prior to an eventual erosion of price towards a test of 1.18 the figure in an extension of the dominant bearish daily trend.  DXY daily chart DXY will be subsequently pushed to test the resistance of the market's bids in the euro and/or the bearish bets on the greenback at 92.20 that guards 92.50/80 territory and onwards. 

AUD/USD probes three-day uptrend below 0.7600, around 0.7575 amid Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Aussie pair justifies the pullback from 5

AUD/USD remains sidelined after a three-day uptrend, failures to cross immediate hurdle.Weekly support line tests sellers, falling trend line from early April adds to the upside filters.AUD/USD probes three-day uptrend below 0.7600, around 0.7575 amid Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Aussie pair justifies the pullback from 50-SMA. However, strong Momentum and sustained trading beyond the weekly rising support line keeps the buyers hopeful. Hence, AUD/USD traders should wait for a clear break of the area between the stated SMA and support line, respectively around 0.7600 and 0.7535. While the downside break of 0.7535 won’t hesitate in challenging the yearly bottom surrounding 0.7475, an upside clearance of 50-SMA level will aim for a seven-week-old resistance line near 0.7630. It’s worth noting that a falling trend line from June 11 and Monday’s swing high, near 0.7620 and 0.7545 in that order, add filters to the AUD/USD pair’s short-term moves. To sum up, AUD/USD recovery needs justification but bulls aren’t out of the woods. AUD/USD four-hour chart Trend: Pullback expected  

After posting strong gains in the previous three sessions, AUD/JPY is moving in a close trading band in the Asian session. The cross is struggling nea

AUD/JPY extends the previous three session’s gains on Thursday.AUD remains grounded on improved risk appetite, upbeat economic outlook.Yen suffers from downbeat economic data.After posting strong gains in the previous three sessions, AUD/JPY is moving in a close trading band in the Asian session. The cross is struggling near the 84.10 mark, now support-turned-resistance level. At the time of writing, AUD/JPY is trading at 84.09, up 0.07% for the day. Investors remain unfazed by the US higher inflation expectations among Fed officials. The mixed responses from the policymakers fail to provide any meaningful traction in the US dollar. The improved risk sentiment helps Aussie gains.
 
It is worth noting that S&P 500 Futures were trading at 4,239, up 0.18% for the day. Iron ore prices gained after dropping to a two week low of $210.5 per tonne, after China’s top economic planning agency said it would probe malicious speculation in the iron ore market Higher commodity prices helped commodity-linked AUD to gain against the majors. On the economic side, the data showed on Wednesday that the IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 58.4 in June. The Composite PMI decreased to 56.1 in June from 58.0 in the previous month. However, this reading reflected the expansion in the private sector’s business activity, albeit at a slower pace than it did in May. On the other hand, the yen remained submissive to the dismal economic data. The Jibun Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.5 in June from 53.0 in the previous month. A slower vaccination rollout program and lockdown restriction kept the currency pressurized, despite the policymaker's optimistic economic outlook as revealed in the Minutes of Meeting of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) latest monetary policy. The market dynamics continue to influence the pair’s performance in the absence of any major fundamental news. AUD/JPY additional levels  

USD/CAD refreshes intraday low to 1.2300 amid a lackluster Asian session on Thursday morning. The Loonie pair remained unchanged the previous day as b

USD/CAD struggles to extend recovery from weekly bottom.Fedspeak, Biden’s infrastructure spending headlines favor risk appetite.WTI consolidates recent gains amid mixed clues during quiet session.US Durable Goods Orders, Fed’s signals and US stimulus talks will be the key.USD/CAD refreshes intraday low to 1.2300 amid a lackluster Asian session on Thursday morning. The Loonie pair remained unchanged the previous day as bulls and bears jostle amid mixed concerns. Among them, the downbeat print of Canadian Retail Sales for April, -5.7% MoM versus -5.0% forecast, joins the mixed US Markit PMIs to test the USD/CAD bears. On the contrary, firmer oil prices, Canada’s key export item, as well as the upbeat market sentiment tame the recovery moves. Recently, chatters surrounding US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending package and fears of covid variants tease the pair sellers even as WTI steps back from multi-month high above $73.00. Additionally, the passage of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's budget bill, one step closer to become the law, also confuses the USD/CAD trader amid a quiet session. It’s worth noting that the Fed policymakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell, gained support from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to defend easy money policies. Also notable is the US Senators’ rush to finalize the details of the $1.2 trillion stimulus ahead of two-week-long holidays. Against this backdrop, stock futures are mildly bid but the US Treasury yields struggle for clear direction by the press time. Moving on, a light calendar in Canada highlights US Durable Goods Orders for May as the key catalyst of the day. However, major attention will be given to oil prices and Fedspeak, not to forget stimulus and covid headlines, for fresh impulse. Read: US Durable Goods Orders May Preview: Is the consumer really absent? Technical analysis Wednesday’s Doji candlestick above 50-day EMA keeps USD/CAD buyers hopeful unless the quote drops below 1.2250. The recovery moves, however, will be questioned by 100-day EMA near 1.2400. 

GBP/USD picks up bids to 1.3965 during the fourth consecutive positive day in Asia. In doing so, the cable pair cheers the previous day’s upside break

GBP/USD pokes intraday high during the four-day uptrend.Further gains envisioned on firmer RSI, sustained break of the key moving average.50-DMA, monthly resistance line probe buyers, bumpy road ahead for bears.GBP/USD picks up bids to 1.3965 during the fourth consecutive positive day in Asia. In doing so, the cable pair cheers the previous day’s upside break of 100-day SMA (DMA) amid upbeat RSI conditions. However, bulls are chained ahead of the key monetary policy meeting of the Bank of England (BOE). In addition to the 100-DMA breakout and RSI levels, a successful run-up beyond a horizontal area from early April, around 1.3925-15, strengthens the bullish impulse. Hence, GBP/USD buyers are well set to battle the 1.4000 threshold while the quote’s further upside will be tested by late April tops near 1.4010. Also acting as the key upside barriers are 50-day SMA level of 1.4036 and a descending resistance line from June 01 near 1.4070. Meanwhile, GBP/USD bears will have a tough time on their return as 100-DMA of 1.3950 and the resistance-turned-support area of 1.3925-15 act as near-term strong supports. Even if the pair breaks the 1.3915 level, 1.3850 and the monthly low near 1.3785 will challenge any further downside. GBP/USD daily chart Trend: Further upside expected  

The price of silver is off a tough n the early Asian session by some 0.18% as it continues to consolidate vs the greenback this week. XAG/USD is curre

Silver is under pressure in consolidation at trendline support. All eyes are now moving towards US economic data as the Fed gets digested.  The price of silver is off a tough n the early Asian session by some 0.18% as it continues to consolidate vs the greenback this week.  XAG/USD is currently trading at $25.83 and has travelled on the day so far between a low of $25.82 and $25.91. Meanwhile, the price of silver was higher by some 0.4% by the closing bell on Wall Street with XAG/USD rising from a low of $25.76 to a high of $26.29. Base metals also rose sharply as the market reacted to the release of lower than expected volumes from China’s strategic reserve. Additionally, the greenback pared gains following weak June services PMI that fell sharply to 64.8, while sales of new US homes also dropped unexpectedly. However, Federal Reserve officials warned that tapering of assets purchased could be in the next few months. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said he’s expecting rates will start to rise in 2022 as the economic recovery gathers pace.  Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said with growth surging to an estimated 7% this year and inflation well above the Fed's 2% target, he now expects interest rates will need to rise in late 2022. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that while they largely agree recent price increases will prove temporary, they also feel it may take longer than anticipated for them to fade. These comments followed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments from the prior day where he played down rising price pressures. However, precious metals continue to underperform which still suggests that the bar is low for further weakness in prices.  

Japan Corporate Service Price Index (YoY) above forecasts (0.9%) in May: Actual (1.5%)

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks dipped from previous ¥-33.2B to ¥-191.5B in June 18

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks declined to ¥-191B in June 18 from previous ¥-33.2B

Japan Foreign Bond Investment up to ¥979.7B in June 18 from previous ¥410.6B

Ahead of Thursday’s key event, Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy meeting, Reuters came out with the analysis by saying, “The Bank of England will

Ahead of Thursday’s key event, Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy meeting, Reuters came out with the analysis by saying, “The Bank of England will say on Thursday whether it is worried about a recent jump in inflation, which broke above the central bank's 2% target and looks set to climb higher as Britain reawakens its economy from its coronavirus slumber.” “But last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve began to move towards reducing its pandemic stimulus by signaling its first rate hike in 2023, a year earlier than previous projections, putting the focus on what other central banks might now do,” added Reuters. The analytical piece also quotes Hugh Gimber, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, as saying, “Last week the Fed took its first step in guiding investors towards less easy policy ahead. The Bank of England may not be far behind.” Comments from Evercore, a consulting firm, go a step ahead while favoring the rate hike concerns by May 2022 “if the furlough phase-out goes better”. Against this backdrop, GBP/USD stays sidelined around 1.3965 by the press time of Thursday’s Asian session.

GBP/JPY price edges higher on Thursday morning in the initial trading session. The cross made YTD high at 156.07 in May and continued to drift lower s

GBP/JPY makes a stellar recovery from the previous week's lower levels.Bulls remain hopeful above the 154.95 level, look for additional gains.Momentum oscillator moves in favor of upside momentum.GBP/JPY price edges higher on Thursday morning in the initial trading session. The cross made YTD high at 156.07 in May and continued to drift lower since then. After testing the low of 151.32 price again rose to the 155.00 mark on Wednesday. At the time of writing, GBP/JPY is trading at 154.99, up 0.08% for the day.GBP/JPY daily chartOn the daily chart, the GBP/JPY cross has been in the continuous downside momentum since the beginning of the month. The pair remained under selling pressure after making a YTD high of 156.07 on May 27. Price is comfortably placed above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 154.78, which strengthens the upside momentum for the pair. In doing so, GBP/JPY would test the first resistance at the high of June 16 at 155.38. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator reading above the midline, which signifies the impending higher price movement. Any uptick in the MACD would ignite a fresh round of buying opportunities. Market participants would then look out for June 4 high at 155.76 followed by the high of May 31 in the vicinity of the 155.95 area. Alternatively, if price makes a sustained move below the intraday low at 154.87, then it could inch toward the previous day’s low at 154.16. The cross would then be encouraged to retest the 153.65 horizontal support level. Next, GBP/JPY bears would attempt to capture the 153.20 horizontal support level. GBP/JPY additional levels
 

EUR/GBP fades bounce off 11-week low, flashed the previous day, by easing to 0.8542 during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the currency pair re

EUR/GBP bears catch a breather around early April lows.Strong EU PMIs battle Brexit, Delta Plus woes to keep bears hopeful.BOE is expected to repeat status-quo, comments over tapering will be the key.German data, Fedspeak and qualitative risk catalysts should be watched too.EUR/GBP fades bounce off 11-week low, flashed the previous day, by easing to 0.8542 during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the currency pair remains sidelined as mixed plays combat ahead of the key bank of England (BOE) monetary policy meeting. Strong activity numbers from Europe failed to stop the quote from refreshing the multi-day low on Wednesday as UK PMIs remained firm too, per preliminary data for June. The downside momentum could also be linked to the pre-BOE preparations amid hopes of witnessing hawkish signals from the “Old Lady”. That said, UK’s Delta Plus covid variant threat seems to escalate as cases jump 40% in a single day with 41 new infections, per The Independent. Even so, UK’s Vaccine Minister Nadhim Zahawi safeguards the government while saying, “The UK's vaccination rollout has saved more than 14,000 lives, and prevented 44,500 hospital admissions in England alone, including 2,500 in the past two weeks,” per Sky News. Elsewhere, Sky News also mentioned that the MPs were told of the UK government’s confidence in agreeing on changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol with the European Union. However, Irish fishermen protest against the lower quota in the post-Brexit deal. On a broader front, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen managed to tame the rate-hike and tapering woes, which in turn improved market sentiment. Though, uncertainty over the US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending package ahead of a two-week holiday in the American Senate probes market optimism. That said, S&P 500 Futures remain mildly bid whereas the US Treasury yields also stay firmer by the press time. Moving on, German Import Price and IFO figures, for May and June respectively, could entertain EUR/GBP traders ahead of the key BOE. “The Bank of England MPC will announce its June monetary policy decision. The policy is likely to remain on hold, and we will be watching the Bank’s assessment of risks given stronger inflation outcomes but a delayed reopening. There is also potential for a market reaction to the MPC vote on continuing QE. The May vote was 8-1, with talk of either 2 or 3 dissenters this time,” said Westpac ahead of the event. Technical analysis EUR/GBP remains on the bear’s radar unless crossing a confluence of 50-day and 100-day SMA near 0.8625. However, the cross-currency pair’s immediate downside is challenged by early March’s low near 0.8530, as well as a downward sloping trend line from April 19, near 0.8510.  

Oil prices are flat in Asia with bulls resting below the recent highs made overnight when a larger than expected drop in US oil inventories proved tha

WTI consolidates the overnight bid as nulls eye the $75 level for the sessions ahead. Inventories data, demand and the OPEC meeting next week are driving the bid. Oil prices are flat in Asia with bulls resting below the recent highs made overnight when a larger than expected drop in US oil inventories proved that demand is continuing to improve.  On a spot basis, WTI was 0.25% higher by the closing bell at $73.24, ending below the highs of $74.22 and up from the lows of $72.84. In Asia, the price is trading at $73.23, slightly below the high of the session at $73.31. The Energy Information Administration reported US oil inventories fell by 7.6-million barrels last week, well above the 4.3-million-barrel drop expected. Gasoline inventories were also lower, falling 2.9 million barrels.  ''This was the fifth weekly fall in inventories and pegs the commercial crude oil stockpile at 459.1mbbls, the lowest level since March 2020,'' analysts at ANZ bank explained.  ''Gasoline inventories were also weaker, as the driving season pushes demand higher. The large drawdown highlights how tight the market is; however, the lack of supply response is also having an impact.'' In the background, OPEC+ group is expected to limit supply as they sit on more than 7-million barrels per day of unused capacity at the same time while negotiations with Iran continue to linger. An OPEC+ meeting next week will be closely watched by traders as the group is expected to decide on its August production levels in order to ease global deficits expected in coming months. ''More cautious members are debating whether any increase in production should be pushed to August instead, which would open the door to higher prices in the near-term,'' analysts at TD Securities explained. ''Notwithstanding, oil inventories should soon reach the critical benchmarks set by the 2015-19 average levels by July, which should prompt OPEC+ to ramp up the pace on the unwind of their deal. In this scenario, the breakout north of $70/bbl may not be sustainable, but the cautious plan would see the Summer Breakout continuing to play out in the near-term.'' WTI technical analysis The $75 target is in focus. The daily chart shows that the price is steadily approaching the target following a significant retracement to prior resistance structure. With the price closing above the prior day’s close once again, the focus is on the upside for the forthcoming sessions. 

EUR/USD eases from intraday top to 1.1930 amid a subdued Asian session on Thursday. Although the major currency pair is on the way to snap a three-wee

EUR/USD keeps weekly gains, mildly bid on the day.Recovery moves need to cross two-week-old resistance line to convince bulls.Early March lows add to the downside filters, 50-SMA strengthens bearish formation’s resistance.EUR/USD eases from intraday top to 1.1930 amid a subdued Asian session on Thursday. Although the major currency pair is on the way to snap a three-week downtrend, it forms a bearish chart pattern on the four-hour (4H) play. It should, however, be noted that bullish MACD signals restrict the quote from breaking the weekly ascending channel, forming part of the bearish flag pattern. On the contrary, 50-SMA adds strength to the flag’s resistance, around 1.1990, which in turn keeps EUR/USD buyers baffled. Also challenging the pair’s short-term upside could be the 1.2000 psychological magnet and a downward sloping trend line from June 09, near 1.2042. Meanwhile, a clear break of 1.1915 will quickly attack the weekly bottom surrounding 1.1845 before rushing towards the theoretical target challenging the yearly low near the 1.1700 threshold. On their way down, EUR/USD sellers may find the early March lows near 1.1835 and the 1.1800 as buffers. EUR/USD four-hour chart Trend: Recovery lacks momentum  

USD/JPY extends the previous session’s gains in the initial Asian trading hours. The pair gathers momentum and refreshes the YTD highs near the 111.11

USD/JPY continues to march higher with strong gains.Strong US dollar contributes to the upside momentum in the pair.Yen remains submissive on mixed economic data and a  softer BOJ tone.USD/JPY extends the previous session’s gains in the initial Asian trading hours. The pair gathers momentum and refreshes the YTD highs near the 111.11 mark. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 110.97, up 0.02% for the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the greenback against its six major currencies, trades at 91.80. The US 10-year benchmark yield hovers near 1.48% with 0.12% gains. The gains in the greenback traced back to Fed official’s debate over rising inflation pressure after Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the rising pricing pressure once again. The IHS Markit US Manufacturing PMI rose 62.6 in June from 62.1 in May, much above the market forecast of 61.5. The readings revealed record growth in factory activity as COVID-19 restrictions eased. The IHS Markit US Services PMI fell to 64.8 in June,  much lower than the market consensus at 70.0.  The IHS Markit US Composite PMI dropped to 63.9 in June, from a record high of 68.7 in May. The mixed data held the gains for the greenback. On the other hand, the Japanese yen lacks behind the investor’s spotlight on the mixed economic state. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) board members felt massive stimulus would help the economy to recover, with domestic consumption potentially providing a tailwind as accumulated savings get spent.  Market participants are now bracing up for the slew of economic data: US Durable Goods Orders, GDP Price Index, Corporate Profits QoQ, and GDP Growth Rate QoQ. The Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Goods Trade Balance Adv for May.  USD/JPY additional levels  
 

With less than a day before the US Senators’ two-week recess, President Joe Biden’s infrastructure and spending plan deadlock probes market sentiment

With less than a day before the US Senators’ two-week recess, President Joe Biden’s infrastructure and spending plan deadlock probes market sentiment of late. In this regard, CNN said, “The next 24 hours could determine whether two of President Joe Biden's major bipartisan priorities, infrastructure and policing legislature, will collapse.” “If they don't finalize an agreement, Democrats will try to go it alone on infrastructure — a risky gambit that has no guarantee of success. And there likely won't be any new policing legislation this Congress without Republican backing,” added the news. Not only the $1.2 trillion infrastructure package but the overhaul of the nation’s policing laws was also the key concern before the US Senate members. The latest update suggests that US Senators from the Democratic Party, namely Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, as well as Mitt Romney from Republicans, signal they are close to an infrastructure deal. FX implications… Following the news, S&P 500 Futures print mild gains even as Wall Street closed mixed. However, the AUD/USD prices, the risk barometer in Asia-Pacific, remain sidelined by the press time of early Thursday. Read: AUD/USD keeps first weekly gains in three above 0.7550 amid risk-on mood

US share market fades the bullish momentum even as Fed policymakers manage to tame the rate-hike woes. The underperformance could be traced to deadloc

US equity benchmarks closed mixed with tech shares favoring Nasdaq.Tesla jumps over 5.0%, consumer discretionary steps back amid mixed PMIs.Fedspeak convinces markets of no immediate rate fears.Doubts over Biden’s infrastructure spending, covid variant probe the bulls.US share market fades the bullish momentum even as Fed policymakers manage to tame the rate-hike woes. The underperformance could be traced to deadlock over US President Joe Biden’s next stimulus and rising fears of the Delta Plus variant of the coronavirus (COVID-19). Also challenging the sentiment could be the mixed PMIs and Sino-American tussles. Against this backdrop, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) dropped 71.34 points or 0.21% while S&P 500 snapped a two-day uptrend with a 0.11% downside, or 4.36 points, to 4,241.84. It should, however, be noted that Nasdaq cheered upbeat Treasury yields and firmer technology shares with 18.5 points, or 0.13%, of daily gains while refreshing an all-time high with 14,317.70. Among the major performers, Tesla’s 5.3% upside contrasted Moderna’s over 6.0% downside. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s reaffirmation of no major challenge to the Fed’s current policy, gains support from President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Eric Rosengren who expects, “most price increases will be reversed going into next year.” Also backing Powell was US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen by saying, “Most measures of inflation expectations remain well-anchored.” Elsewhere, the US restricts exports to five Chinese firms over rights violations while Beijing warned Washington over warships in Taiwan Strait. Both the economies have been at loggerheads of late. Furthermore, CNN mentioned that the next 24 hours could determine whether two of President Joe Biden's major bipartisan priorities, infrastructure and policing legislature, will collapse. Datawise, US Manufacturing PMI for June was firmer but the Services gauge repeats a lack of strong growth. Further, New Home Sales confirmed weakness in the American housing market with the latest figures for May. Moving on, US Durable Goods Orders, Personal Consumption Expenditures and Weekly Jobless Claims will decorate the calendar. However, Fedspeak and qualitative factors will keep the driver’s seat. Read: Forex Today: Waiting for the next catalyst

“Fed needs to watch the data to see if inflation is more persistent than expected,” said Eric Rosengren is president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Ba

“Fed needs to watch the data to see if inflation is more persistent than expected,” said Eric Rosengren is president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, per Reuters. The Fed policymaker also joined the chorus including Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen while saying, “most price increases will be reversed going into next year.” Fed’s Rosengren further added, “While there are elevated prices for many goods and services that will be more moderate in 2022.” Additional key comments… A robust recovery is underway. Vaccination rates have occurred more rapidly than anticipated. Economy is getting close to some estimates of full employment. Many sectors of the economy are still suffering. There are shortages of goods and services because economy opened up so quickly. Some costs are repricing back to normal. The Federal Reserve does not expect used car price to continue to rise at the same pace. Sees inflation slightly higher than 2% in 2022. In terms of employment we're still well below where we were pre-pandemic. Fed will watch data and act if necessary. It is surprising overall average hourly earnings are not higher. We need to think about financial stability issues when there is a high degree of stimulus. Fed has to worry about rising housing prices and a boom-bust scenario. Not necessarily expecting a bust in home prices. Inflation risks are heightened and fed should be attuned to those patterns. Any forecasts expecting inflation above 3% next year are outliers. FX implications Fed’s Rosengren adds strength to the market’s strength in pushing back rate hike expectations and favor the risk barometers like AUD/USD to consolidate the previous week’s losses. Read: AUD/USD keeps first weekly gains in three above 0.7550 amid risk-on mood

AUD/USD bulls take a breather around 0.7575 as Thursday’s Asian session begins, following a three-day run-up that poked the 0.7600 threshold. The Auss

AUD/USD retreats after three-day uptrend, remains sidelined of late.Fedspeak, upbeat US data favor bulls, Aussie PMI, Sino-American tussles cap the upside.US Durable Goods Orders, qualitative factors will offer fresh impulse, Asian session can be quiet.AUD/USD bulls take a breather around 0.7575 as Thursday’s Asian session begins, following a three-day run-up that poked the 0.7600 threshold. The Aussie pair’s latest strength could be linked to the Fedspeak that tones down the last week’s hawkish rhetoric. It should, however, be noted that headlines concerning China and downbeat Aussie data, not to forget uncertainty over US President Joe Biden’s infrastructure spending and covid strain fears, seem to probe the bulls from time to time. Fed rate hike expectations pushed back… US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell and colleagues get an upper hand in the fight to tame the rate-hike and tapering concerns. After Powell’s reaffirmation that the inflation risks are transitory, posing no major challenge to the Fed’s current policy, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Eric Rosengren expects, “most price increases will be reversed going into next year.” On the same line were comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen saying, “Most measures of inflation expectations remain well-anchored.” It’s worth noting that Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan stayed hawkish over the Fed’s next moves but got fewer accolades. Amid these plays, US rate hike expectations data suggest the first full rate increase is recently priced in at February 2023 versus December 2022 during the last week. Hence, a reduction in the rate hike calls favors the market sentiment and the risk-barometer AUD/USD prices. Elsewhere, China’s warning to the US over warships in Taiwan Strait and Sino-American trade tussles, not to forget Canberra-Beijing woes, test the risk appetite and favor US dollar buyers. Additionally, the lack of time in completing Biden’s infrastructure spending talks before the US policymakers take a recess to join the Delta Plus covid variant fears to weigh on the mood and put a bid under the greenback. Talking about data, US PMIs were modestly strong, with Manufacturing growing more than Services, but Aussie activities eased in June, per preliminary PMI data. Against this backdrop, Wall Street closed mixed and the US 10-year Treasury yields remain firm by the end of Wednesday’s North American trading session. Looking forward, a lack of major data/events up for publishing during the Asian session could keep AUD/USD traders troubled but the bulls may keep the reins until any major challenges to the risk appetite appears, likely from China or relating to US stimulus. Technical analysis Despite crossing the 200-day SMA level of 0.7558 on a daily closing, AUD/USD needs a clear upside break of 0.7585-90 before aiming the 0.7600 threshold and the month-start low near 0.7645.  

South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index above forecasts (103.6) in June: Actual (110.3)

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